277
FXUS63 KGLD 200537
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS WIND CHILLS MAY FALL
AS LOW AS 30 BELOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA AND DUNDY
COUNTIES.
- AN EARLY MORNING LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE EVENT.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE BENEFITING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS VERSUS EASTERN LOCALES AS THE CLEARER SKIES EAST ARE
SHOWING SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO VERSUS MAINLY TEENS IN THE
WEST. THESE NUMBERS AREA-WIDE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME AS MORE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WORKS INTO THE AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN COLORADO THIS
EVENING, THE 20% CHANCE SEEMS OK WITH THE NAMNEST SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER COLORADO WORKS SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER EXTENT EASTWARD, THE
DRIER AIR MAY START TO ERODE CHANCES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
POPS BETWEEN HWY 25/27. THESE MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOCUS SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THE 12Z TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO MOVE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE WEST TO
DEVELOP. THESE WINDS HOWEVER ARE NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AN AIR
MASS RANGING FROM -7 TO -13 850MB TEMPERATURES AND A SNOW PACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT TODAY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO START INCREASING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. STARTING WITH THE SNOW CHANCES, OVERALL THE
SNOW CHANCES DON'T LOOK AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO
WEAKER LIFT AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
LINGERING AROUND. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW FROM ROUGHLY 10PM
TO 2AM MT FOR LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OCCUR BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE MINIMAL TO NO
SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH THE LIFT DOES INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WHICH IS WHAT IS
LEADING TO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY FOR GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO.
NOW TO THE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND CHILLS, THE HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILLS DO LOOK TO RETURN AGAIN BUT MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TO MUCH AT FIRST. WINDS AS THE NEWEST ROUND OF COLD AIR SPILLS
IN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
WHICH WILL INITIALLY START THE DECLINE IN WIND CHILLS, AROUND
3-5AM MT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
FALL. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLEARING AND BREEZY WINDS CONCERNS
FOR EXTREME COLD WARNING CONDITIONS WITH WIND CHILLS OF -25
BELOW ZERO ARE IN PLACE WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IN
YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTY WHERE I HAVE ISSUED THE WARNING FOR. I
WAS DEBATING ADDING IN KIT CARSON COUNTY AS THE SNOW PACK LAST
NIGHT WOUND UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES MORE THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALES FALLING AS LOW AS -28 WIND CHILLS;
THE REASON I HELP OFF WAS DUE TO THE CONCERN FOR CLOUD COVER
LINGERING TO LONG. ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE AS THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE WIND CHILL CONCERNS. THE
WINDS FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM AT THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE EARLIER OR MOVE OUT QUICKER
(10%)IF THIS OCCURS THEN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL FALL
EVEN MORE SO WITH THE CONCERN FOR -35 TO EVEN -40 WIND CHILLS
ACROSS YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTY AND -25 WIND CHILLS FURTHER SOUTH.
WILL RELAY ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY TRENDS FOR
THIS OCCUR. IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER (10%)
THEN THOSE IN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AT
LEAST 15 BELOW WIND CHILLS AS THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER;
YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES HOWEVER MAY NOT REACH THE 25 BELOW FOR
WARNING CRITERIA.
MONDAY, THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
LEADING TO MOST LOCATIONS NOT EXCEEDING THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY GUSTING 20-30 MPH WHICH DOES LEAD TO THE CONCERN FOR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING TO BE MET THROUGH THE
WHOLE DAY ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WHAT NEWEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR WIND AND
TEMPERATURES BUT A POTENTIAL TIME EXTENSION FOR THE ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. THERE MAY BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
EAST AS VERY DRY DEW POINTS IN THE TEEN TO 20 BELOW RANGE MOVE
IN AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WITH THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED. I DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP
A TAD BIT IF MIXING FOR THE BREEZY WINDS CAN BRING DOWN SOME
SLIGHTLY "WARMER" TEMPERATURES. IF THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN THEN SOME
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING
BROKEN MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST OF THE ENTIRE EVENT. AS WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, CLEAR SKIES AND VERY VERY DRY DEW POINTS
DOWN AS LOW AS -20F REMAIN FORECASTED WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR
VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. I CONTINUE TO GO WITH
SOME OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BUT I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT
STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH ESPECIALLY IF RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS STRONG ENOUGH. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN SOME RECORD LOWS MAY
BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. I DID CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE
COLD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS
REMAIN FORECASTED BELOW -20F FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SSW WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT
THE COLD AIR MASS AS SOME LOCALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INTO
TUESDAY A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO ENSUE AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECASTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DO SUPPORT HIGHER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES BUT I HAVE CONCERN
ABOUT THE SNOW PACK ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MODERATING THAT A
BIT SO DID CONTINUE WITH A RELATIVE COOLER TREND IN GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST AS THE VERY DRY DEW POINTS REMAIN ALONG WITH
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AS THE RAP SHOWS A 40 KNOT 850MB JET NUDGING
INTO THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MIXING WHICH THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES
EXCEL IN. SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO FAVOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A SYSTEM AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30'S
AND LOW 40'S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
BIT COOLER AND WINDS A BIT LIGHTER IF THE TROUGH DIGS MORE WEST
LIKE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREN'T ZERO, BUT SIMILAR TO THE RECENT
COLD FRONT, CHANCES ARE LOW AS THE FRONT IS EARLY AND WELL AHEAD
OF THE SUGGESTED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO NEAR 50 AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T PUSH THROUGH TOO QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30'S AND 40'S. CURRENTLY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW PASSES WHICH IS WHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10%.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOT VERY CLEAR AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THE
POSITIONING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT CONDITIONS THE
AREA WILL FACE. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS AN EVEN SPREAD BETWEEN
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY CUT-OFF LOW AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW DEEP IT GETS. THE OVERARCHING THEMES ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AND THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AS WE SIT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
FOR KGLD, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOOKING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES(PROB30) FROM 07Z-11Z MONDAY
BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM AT TIMES AND CEILINGS DOWN TO
OVC025. WINDS, NORTH-NORTHWEST 10-15KTS. FROM 15Z MON-00Z TUE,
NORTHERLY AROUND 15-25KTS.
FOR KMCK, LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A BKN MID CLOUD DECK FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 17Z,
TRENDING TO SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS, NORTHEAST 5-10KTS. BY 10Z,
SHIFTING NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FROM 17Z ONWARD(GUSTS
AROUND 15-25KTS 17Z MON-00Z TUE).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ091-092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR NEZ079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ080-081.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
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