268
FXUS63 KGLD 201020
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 30 BELOW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES.
- AN EARLY MORNING LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
POWDERY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE COLDEST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS, WARMEST FROM HILL CITY TO OAKLEY AND LEOTI. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH COULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILL READINGS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F TO -24F) LONGER THAN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY LASTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET A BETTER GRASP OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BEFORE POTENTIALLY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY
BEYOND ITS CURRENT 11 AM MST END TIME.
TONIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW COLD IT GETS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT NOT SITTING DIRECTLY ON
TOP OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH
TO DEVELOP, LIGHTEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND WILL LIKELY VARY QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEYS WHERE WINDS SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHTER. WIND CHILL
READINGS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED. AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH CONTINUES AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WE'LL BREAK OUT OF THE ARCTIC AIR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. READINGS COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IF WE ACHIEVE TYPICAL MIXING AT 850MB. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS, PARTLY DUE TO
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO FAVOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A SYSTEM AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30'S
AND LOW 40'S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
BIT COOLER AND WINDS A BIT LIGHTER IF THE TROUGH DIGS MORE WEST
LIKE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREN'T ZERO, BUT SIMILAR TO THE RECENT
COLD FRONT, CHANCES ARE LOW AS THE FRONT IS EARLY AND WELL AHEAD
OF THE SUGGESTED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO NEAR 50 AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T PUSH THROUGH TOO QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30'S AND 40'S. CURRENTLY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW PASSES WHICH IS WHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10%.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOT VERY CLEAR AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THE
POSITIONING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT CONDITIONS THE
AREA WILL FACE. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS AN EVEN SPREAD BETWEEN
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY CUT-OFF LOW AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW DEEP IT GETS. THE OVERARCHING THEMES ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AND THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AS WE SIT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS ARE FORECAST FROM
TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AT 00Z BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z, INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS. TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT 01Z BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 05Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.
NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ090>092.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-
092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ080-081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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