883
FXUS63 KGLD 201640
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
940 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
- AN EARLY MORNING LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
HAVE ENDED THE EXTREME COLD WARNING EARLY AS WIND CHILLS HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE -25. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE COUNTIES
IN THE ADVISORY AS THEY HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT; HOWEVER HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THROUGH 5PM MT
AS THERE IS POTENTIAL THEY MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
ORIGINAL 18Z END TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM THROUGH THE DAY AS
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
POWDERY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE COLDEST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MIDDLE TEENS, WARMEST FROM HILL CITY TO OAKLEY AND LEOTI. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F TO -24F)
LONGER THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY LASTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET A BETTER
GRASP OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BEYOND ITS CURRENT 11 AM MST END TIME.
TONIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW COLD IT GETS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT NOT
SITTING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO DEVELOP, LIGHTEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND WILL
LIKELY VARY QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHTER. WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY
30 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH CONTINUES
AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WE'LL BREAK OUT OF THE ARCTIC AIR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.
READINGS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IF WE ACHIEVE TYPICAL
MIXING AT 850MB. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS, PARTLY DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A PATTERN TRANSITION WILL OCCUR MID-LATE
WEEK AS THE LARGE POLAR LOW/VORTEX (PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL-EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS) WHOLLY ASCENDS TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES (55N+) WHENCE IT
CAME. A RATHER COMPLEX AND MERCURIAL (IRREGULAR/FLUCTUATING)
PATTERN WILL ENSUE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN (ON THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING POLAR LOW) WILL PROGRESS SSE
INTO THE DAKOTAS (THU) AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (THU
NIGHT).. AND THAT SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELEGATED TO EASTERN SD-NE AND
MN-IA. IN THE TRI-STATE AREA, THE PASSAGE OF THE NEARBY WAVE
WILL MANIFEST AS BREEZY (~25-35 MPH) NORTHWEST WINDS AND NEUTRAL
THERMAL ADVECTION (850 MB FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT). EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS, IN THE UPPER
30'S TO LOWER 40'S.
FRIDAY: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A UNIDIRECTIONAL
/WESTERLY/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.. AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW/ ON ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40'S TO LOWER-MID 50S.
SAT-TUE: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, DESERT SOUTHWEST AND/OR
4-CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.. AS A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE.
'BELOW AVERAGE' IN THIS CONTEXT IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND INHERENT
TO) INCREASED PATTERN COMPLEXITY.. E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED
BY CUT-OFF WAVES, MULTIBRANCHED JET/WAVE INTERACTIONS AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVE/DESTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST WILL BE STEERED
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS ARE FORECAST FROM
TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AT 00Z BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z, INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS. TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT 01Z BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 05Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.
NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 13
PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 20
PERCENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-027.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page