747
FXUS63 KGLD 202017
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
- AN EARLY MORNING LIGHT POWDERY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
HAVE ENDED THE EXTREME COLD WARNING EARLY AS WIND CHILLS HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE -25. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE COUNTIES
IN THE ADVISORY AS THEY HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT; HOWEVER HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THROUGH 5PM MT
AS THERE IS POTENTIAL THEY MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
ORIGINAL 18Z END TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM THROUGH THE DAY AS
NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
POWDERY SNOW THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 BEFORE DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE COLDEST SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MIDDLE TEENS, WARMEST FROM HILL CITY TO OAKLEY AND LEOTI. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F TO -24F)
LONGER THAN THE CURRENT ADVISORY LASTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GET A BETTER
GRASP OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BEYOND ITS CURRENT 11 AM MST END TIME.
TONIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW COLD IT GETS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT NOT
SITTING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO DEVELOP, LIGHTEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND WILL
LIKELY VARY QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHTER. WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY
30 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH CONTINUES
AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WE'LL BREAK OUT OF THE ARCTIC AIR AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.
READINGS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IF WE ACHIEVE TYPICAL
MIXING AT 850MB. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS, PARTLY DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 30'S AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY FROM THE NORTH WITH THE 850-700MB HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENED
AS THE LOW SWINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30
AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOWER SPEEDS MORE LIKELY IF THE
CENTER OF THE AXIS SWUNG OVER THE AREA.
FRIDAY, SLIGHT RIDGING IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE TROUGH THAT WOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
IF THE TIMING HOLDS AND WE KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE 50'S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY, BUT
REMAIN FORECAST TO BE OFF SET OF THE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA. HENCEFORTH, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MAYBE SOME BREEZY WIND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
IF PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AND
LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS INTERESTING AS A CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE
PROBLEM FOR US IS THAT MOST GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT ELONGATING WITH A
POSITIVE TILT WHICH WOULD PUT THE TRI-STATE AREA AT THE DOWNSTREAM
END OF IT. WHILE NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE AREA HAS MULTIPLE DAYS OF CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA. SO CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOMEWHAT SPLIT AND WEAK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR EACH TAF SITE. CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LETTING UP AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WSW GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THIS COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON JAN 20 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.
NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THIS IS DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 13
PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 20
PERCENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-013-027-041-
042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...99
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