886
FXUS63 KGLD 210512
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1012 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES KEPT IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS REMAIN AROUND -15 OR LESS.
- A FINAL ROUND OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TODAY BUT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE END IS
IN SITE. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE THAN WHAT
I WAS INITIALLY EXPECTING, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SNOW
PACK. THE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DID WARM A BIT MORE IS THAT
THE BREEZY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH MAY HAVE HELPED MIX DOWN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED
IF THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER SINCE THIS IS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
THAN WHAT WAS CROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY. I HAVE CONTINUED LAST
NIGHTS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WIND CHILLS HAVE REMAINED AROUND -12 AND COLDER
ACROSS CHEYENNE (KS), DUNDY, YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO).
I HAVE BEEN GIVING IT A LITTLE BIT OF A NUDGE AROUND THE -10 TO
-12F WIND CHILL RANGE DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IMPACTS OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS AS MORE PEOPLE ARE OUT AND
ABOUT.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE THE COLD; THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL COLD NIGHT OF THIS EVENT. THE PROLONGED
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS FINALLY ENDED AS IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
COMBO OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES. YUMA,
KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO), CHEYENNE (KS), SHERMAN, WALLACE, LOGAN,
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES HAVE ALL BEEN UPGRADED TO THE WARNING
AS THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILLS
FALL AS LOW AS -25 TONIGHT. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FALL SLIGHTLY LOWER AS A FRESH LIGHT SNOW PACK IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE WHICH MAY HELP AID WITH THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE SUN SETS BUT WITH THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND
-20F TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING AS IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR WIND CHILLS TO BECOME DANGEROUS. AN
ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AFTER 07Z AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND WE BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE
ADVISORY AREA CONSISTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH OR SO WHICH BRINGS
ME CONCERN FOR VERY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND -10. THE LACK OF
WIND HOWEVER WILL HELP KEEP WIND CHILLS FROM BEING WORSE.
TUESDAY, A QUICK WARMING TREND IN THE MORNING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
I DID KEEP THE TIMING OF THE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ENDING AT 11AM
MT/12PM CT IF THE SURFACE HIGH IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING OUT,
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF THE PRODUCTS WILL
NEED TO BE LET GO EARLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE A LITTLE
TRICKY AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS WE WILL HAVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SW WINDS WHICH TYPICALLY DOES LEAD TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES BUT THE SNOWPACK IS THE MAIN VARIABLE AS THAT
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER SO OPTED TO WITH A MIDDLE
GROUND FOR RIGHT NOW. THE ONE I AREA I DID INCREASE INTO THE LOW
40S IS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A 850MB JET NOSES IN A BRINGS BREEZY
WINDS WHICH IN TURN SHOULD HELP MIX DOWN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE BREEZY WINDS AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO SOME NEAR CRITICAL TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA AS WELL. THE
AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY "MOISTEN" UP THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN
IS FORECAST TO HELP HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT IF THIS
IS SLOWER TO OCCUR THEN A SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE NEED AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(40%) IN MORE THAN 2 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME SO WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD. WINDS DO LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH BUT WILL WANE
THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE RISES WEAKENS. WITH HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN
SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF BLOWING DUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT AT THIS
TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 30'S AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
BREEZY FROM THE NORTH WITH THE 850-700MB HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENED
AS THE LOW SWINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30
AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOWER SPEEDS MORE LIKELY IF THE
CENTER OF THE AXIS SWUNG OVER THE AREA.
FRIDAY, SLIGHT RIDGING IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE TROUGH THAT WOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
IF THE TIMING HOLDS AND WE KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE 50'S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY, BUT
REMAIN FORECAST TO BE OFF SET OF THE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA. HENCEFORTH, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MAYBE SOME BREEZY WIND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
IF PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AND
LIMITED TO EASTERN COLORADO.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS INTERESTING AS A CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE
PROBLEM FOR US IS THAT MOST GUIDANCE HINTS AT IT ELONGATING WITH A
POSITIVE TILT WHICH WOULD PUT THE TRI-STATE AREA AT THE DOWNSTREAM
END OF IT. WHILE NOT LOOKING TOO PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE AREA HAS MULTIPLE DAYS OF CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA. SO CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOMEWHAT SPLIT AND WEAK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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