304
FXUS63 KGLD 210928
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES KEPT IN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS REMAIN AROUND -15 OR LESS.
- A FINAL ROUND OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -30.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY BUT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE END
IS IN SITE. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE THAN
WHAT I WAS INITIALLY EXPECTING, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
SNOW PACK. THE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DID WARM A BIT MORE IS
THAT THE BREEZY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH MAY HAVE HELPED MIX DOWN
A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED
IF THE WINDS WERE LIGHTER SINCE THIS IS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
THAN WHAT WAS CROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY. I HAVE CONTINUED LAST
NIGHTS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WIND CHILLS HAVE REMAINED AROUND -12 AND COLDER
ACROSS CHEYENNE (KS), DUNDY, YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO).
I HAVE BEEN GIVING IT A LITTLE BIT OF A NUDGE AROUND THE -10 TO
-12F WIND CHILL RANGE DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IMPACTS OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS AS MORE PEOPLE ARE OUT AND
ABOUT.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE THE COLD; THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THIS WILL BE THE FINAL COLD NIGHT OF THIS EVENT. THE
PROLONGED EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS FINALLY ENDED AS IT HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A COMBO OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. YUMA, KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO), CHEYENNE (KS),
SHERMAN, WALLACE, LOGAN, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES HAVE ALL
BEEN UPGRADED TO THE WARNING AS THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILLS FALL AS LOW AS -25 TONIGHT.
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS A FRESH LIGHT SNOW PACK IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
WHICH MAY HELP AID WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS BUT WITH
THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS AROUND -20F TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING AS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR
WIND CHILLS TO BECOME DANGEROUS. AN ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AFTER 07Z AS THE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
WE BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE ADVISORY AREA CONSISTS OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH OR SO WHICH BRINGS ME CONCERN FOR VERY STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND -10. THE LACK OF WIND HOWEVER WILL HELP KEEP WIND CHILLS
FROM BEING WORSE.
TUESDAY, A QUICK WARMING TREND IN THE MORNING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR. I DID KEEP THE TIMING OF THE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ENDING
AT 11AM MT/12PM CT IF THE SURFACE HIGH IS A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING OUT, SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF THE
PRODUCTS WILL NEED TO BE LET GO EARLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER
AS WE WILL HAVE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SW WINDS WHICH
TYPICALLY DOES LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES BUT THE SNOWPACK IS
THE MAIN VARIABLE AS THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER SO
OPTED TO WITH A MIDDLE GROUND FOR RIGHT NOW. THE ONE I AREA I
DID INCREASE INTO THE LOW 40S IS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A 850MB JET
NOSES IN A BRINGS BREEZY WINDS WHICH IN TURN SHOULD HELP MIX
DOWN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE BREEZY WINDS AND THE
CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO
SOME NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
THAT AREA AS WELL. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY "MOISTEN" UP
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN IS FORECAST TO HELP HUMIDITY
VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT IF THIS IS SLOWER TO OCCUR THEN A
SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEED AS WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
ALL OF THAT SAID MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW (40%) IN MORE THAN 2 HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME SO
WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD. WINDS DO LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH BUT WILL
WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE RISES WEAKENS. WITH HOW DRY IT
HAS BEEN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF BLOWING DUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
OCCURRING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 30S
FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
OVERVIEW: A COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WNW TO NW FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROAD CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (SOUTHEAST
COLORADO).. AND A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW REGIME ON ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRESENTLY INDICATE THAT 15-20 KNOT WSW FLOW
WILL RESIDE AT THE TOP OF A VERY SHALLOW (1,000-2,000 FT AGL)
MIXED-LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.. SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 MPH. WINDS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE
EVOLUTION (LOCATION, ORIENTATION, MAGNITUDE) OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE AND WHETHER OR NOT (AND IF SO, TO
WHAT EXTENT) INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY AFFECT
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS, 10-20 MPH SW WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50S).. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SAT-SUN: A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTH AMERICA IN THIS PERIOD. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND.. A DRY/SUBSIDENT FLOW REGIME THAT,
ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, [1] TENDS TO ANCHOR HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND [2] FOSTERS EPISODIC
BOUTS OF COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
BROADLY SPEAKING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
MON-TUE: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.. AS A PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIGRATES EASTWARD ASHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST. CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW
AVERAGE' IN THIS CONTEXT IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH /INHERENT-TO/ INCREASED
PATTERN COMPLEXITY.. E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF
WAVES, SPLIT-FLOW, MULTIBRANCHED JET/WAVE INTERACTIONS AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVE/DESTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST WILL BE STEERED
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001-013-027-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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