919
FXUS63 KGLD 211740
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 27 FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
WE ARE SEEING OBSERVATIONS REPORT WIND CHILLS ABOVE 15 BELOW
ZERO, PROMPTING THE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. THE
QUESTION IS JUST HOW WARM THEY WILL BE. A BLEND OF THE BETTER
PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
PARTIAL MIXING TO 850MB FROM THE NAM/GFS/UKMET MODELS. THESE
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER WILL BE CRUCIAL TO REACHING THE 15 PERCENT OR LOWER
THRESHOLD NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GUSTING UP TO
30, MAYBE 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE WINDS AND HUMIDITY
REACH RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLDS, MAINLY IN THE 1 PM MST TO 3 PM
MST TIMEFRAME AND LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES (NORTH
PLATTE AND HASTINGS), WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. DAY
SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE IF CONDITIONS SUPPORT.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED AND THUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 11F TO 20F RANGE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH,
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. IT
WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE E IN THE LOWER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10F TO 18F RANGE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AIR AND BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 8F TO 13F RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
OVERVIEW: A COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WNW TO NW FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROAD CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (SOUTHEAST
COLORADO).. AND A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW REGIME ON ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRESENTLY INDICATE THAT 15-20 KNOT WSW FLOW
WILL RESIDE AT THE TOP OF A VERY SHALLOW (1,000-2,000 FT AGL)
MIXED-LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.. SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 MPH. WINDS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE
EVOLUTION (LOCATION, ORIENTATION, MAGNITUDE) OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE AND WHETHER OR NOT (AND IF SO, TO
WHAT EXTENT) INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY AFFECT
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS, 10-20 MPH SW WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50S).. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SAT-SUN: A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTH AMERICA IN THIS PERIOD. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND.. A DRY/SUBSIDENT FLOW REGIME THAT,
ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, [1] TENDS TO ANCHOR HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND [2] FOSTERS EPISODIC
BOUTS OF COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
BROADLY SPEAKING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
MON-TUE: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.. AS A PRONOUNCED
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIGRATES EASTWARD ASHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST. CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW
AVERAGE' IN THIS CONTEXT IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH /INHERENT-TO/ INCREASED
PATTERN COMPLEXITY.. E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF
WAVES, SPLIT-FLOW, MULTIBRANCHED JET/WAVE INTERACTIONS AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVE/DESTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST WILL BE STEERED
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 00-06Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS WILL MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-06Z AS WS002/320050 KTS PRIMARILY
THROUGH 14-16Z. AFTER 15Z, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KTS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...99
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