856
FXUS63 KGLD 212026
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 27 FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
WE ARE SEEING OBSERVATIONS REPORT WIND CHILLS ABOVE 15 BELOW
ZERO, PROMPTING THE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. THE
QUESTION IS JUST HOW WARM THEY WILL BE. A BLEND OF THE BETTER
PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
PARTIAL MIXING TO 850MB FROM THE NAM/GFS/UKMET MODELS. THESE
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER WILL BE CRUCIAL TO REACHING THE 15 PERCENT OR LOWER
THRESHOLD NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GUSTING UP TO
30, MAYBE 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE WINDS AND HUMIDITY
REACH RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLDS, MAINLY IN THE 1 PM MST TO 3 PM
MST TIMEFRAME AND LOCATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES (NORTH
PLATTE AND HASTINGS), WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. DAY
SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE IF CONDITIONS SUPPORT.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED AND THUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 11F TO 20F RANGE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH,
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. IT
WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE E IN THE LOWER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10F TO 18F RANGE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AIR AND BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 8F TO 13F RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW AROUND FRI/SAT.
FRIDAY IS STILL FORECAST TO HAVE A PATTERN CHANGE AS A LARGER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEVELOPING. THE MAIN CHANGE
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS IS THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW IS A LITTLE FASTER SOUTH (AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING) WHICH NOW KEEPS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INSTEAD OF IN IT OR SOUTH OF IT. WITH THIS,
OUR FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MORE NORTHERN DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BE MORE
APT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSET OF
THE SURFACE FEATURE WITH SATURATION MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS,
WE MAY SEE POCKETS OF 2 INCHES IN EASTERN COLORADO, SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SYSTEM. WE'LL SEE HOW CLOSE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYS TO THE
AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE THEN FORECAST TO BE COOLER WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE
AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW LINGERS OVER THE WEST COAST. AS LONG AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
MERGE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW OR MOVE, TEMPERATURES AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGE
AND INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR PASSING
CLOUDS. IF THE LOW DRIFTED FURTHER WEST, IT MAY ALLOW SOME
WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT AND HELP HAVE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. MAY
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG OR LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION
IF THE FLOW CAN TURN SOUTHERLY AND PULL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 00-06Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS WILL MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-06Z AS WS002/320050 KTS PRIMARILY
THROUGH 14-16Z. AFTER 15Z, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KTS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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