140
FXUS63 KGLD 212115
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 27 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING CLOUD COVER MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES TO STRENGTHEN
A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS ARE
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER AS THE TROUGH EXITS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS MISSOURI. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TOMORROW FOR
THOSE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 GIVEN THE BAND OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWPACK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THOSE IN THE SNOWPACK IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
SHOULD SEE VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY PLACING THE AREA
UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
UNFORTUNATELY THE COLD WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, THOUGH NOT AS COLD
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY! HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW AROUND FRI/SAT.
FRIDAY IS STILL FORECAST TO HAVE A PATTERN CHANGE AS A LARGER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEVELOPING. THE MAIN CHANGE
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS IS THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW IS A LITTLE FASTER SOUTH (AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING) WHICH NOW KEEPS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INSTEAD OF IN IT OR SOUTH OF IT. WITH THIS,
OUR FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MORE NORTHERN DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BE MORE
APT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSET OF
THE SURFACE FEATURE WITH SATURATION MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS,
WE MAY SEE POCKETS OF 2 INCHES IN EASTERN COLORADO, SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SYSTEM. WE'LL SEE HOW CLOSE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STAYS TO THE
AREA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE THEN FORECAST TO BE COOLER WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE
AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW LINGERS OVER THE WEST COAST. AS LONG AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
MERGE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW OR MOVE, TEMPERATURES AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGE
AND INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR PASSING
CLOUDS. IF THE LOW DRIFTED FURTHER WEST, IT MAY ALLOW SOME
WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT AND HELP HAVE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. MAY
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG OR LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION
IF THE FLOW CAN TURN SOUTHERLY AND PULL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 00-06Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS WILL MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-06Z AS WS002/320050 KTS PRIMARILY
THROUGH 14-16Z. AFTER 15Z, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KTS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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