400
FXUS63 KGLD 220751
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1251 AM MST WED JAN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 27 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING CLOUD COVER MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES TO STRENGTHEN
A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS ARE
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER AS THE TROUGH EXITS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS MISSOURI. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TOMORROW FOR
THOSE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 GIVEN THE BAND OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWPACK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THOSE IN THE SNOWPACK IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
SHOULD SEE VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY PLACING THE AREA
UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
UNFORTUNATELY THE COLD WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, THOUGH NOT AS COLD
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY! HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST WED JAN 22 2025
THE LONG-TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CALM. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE, BUT MONDAY
ONWARDS, WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO TAKE OVER.
WE START THE PERIOD OFF WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WITH A
SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. DOWN AT 850 MB, A LOW LOOKS TO START
OFF AROUND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL IN THE WESTERN CWA.
CURRENTLY POPS ARE HIGHEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THE FAR
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA, DROPPING BELOW 30 POPS NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM GOODLAND, KS TO CHEYENNE WELLS, CO. POPS GRADUALLY FALL
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON; BY SUNDAY MORNING, ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO COLORADO. QPF IS MINIMAL
WITH THIS SYSTEM, DUE TO LIMITED PBL MOISTURE. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SEEMS TO REFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN 850 MB HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, DRYING OUT THE SURFACE LAYER BY NOON SATURDAY. IF
THE HIGH MOVES IN SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. IF THE HIGH IS DELAYED, AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEING AROUND THE 10-
15F RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCES SOME WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, AROUND THE -5 TO 5F DEGREE RANGE.
MONDAY, WE CAN EXPECT THE UPPER-LEVEL AND 850 MB RIDGE TO START
BUILDING IN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TRIGGER OUR
WARMING TREND TO START AND KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER 40S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE ON MONDAY LOOKS TO CREATE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
THIS LOW ACTS LIKE THE PREVIOUS CUTOFF LOW, CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST PAST TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 15%.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PBL - PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
F/C - FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS
MB - MILLIBAR
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN 850MB NORTHWEST JET ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
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