401
FXUS63 KGLD 160423
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
923 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW
LOCALES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY SEE WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MID WEEK. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- PERILOUS COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW -25 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
WITH THE LATEST LAV AND NBM HOURLY GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE MCCOOK AREA, HAVE
OPTED TO ADD IN AROUND THE 10Z-14Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE
IS MIXED AS TO LARGER AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRONG RIDGE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SW ZONES WHERE A
FEW MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. BOTH OF THESE ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15-20
MPH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA.
THIS EVENING, THE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THE INVERSION SETS UP IN A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA.
SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO DEVELOP SOME
FREEZING FOG SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING IF THE DRY AIR DOESN'T LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND NEGATIVES FROM HITCHCOCK TO NORTON
COUNTIES AND NORTH. PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS BRIEFLY
AROUND -15F, BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST LACK OF WIND SHOULD KEEP THIS
SPOTTY AND BRIEF IN NATURE.
TOMORROW, MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA WITH A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT POCKETS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA. WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
ADVANCE IN FROM THE WEST, THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND CLOUD
COVER LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS ARE SHOULD ALSO
GENERALLY REMAIN COLDER WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 20'S AND LOW 30'S. NEAR EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30'S. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FORE THOSE WHO HAVE LINGER SNOW COVER, WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20'S. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10-20 MPH
LATER IN THE DAY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO RISK FOR BLOWING SNOW AS IT
MELTS AND COMPACTS. TOMORROW NIGHT, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME FREEZING FOG NORTH OF I-70 IF MOISTURE SLIDING THROUGH NEBRASKA
CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH THE WINDS
KEEPING THE AIR MIXED AND LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE.
MONDAY, THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR, WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. FOR
THE TRI-STATE AREA, THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20'S AND 30'S AND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT FOG AND CLOUDY
SKIES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND HOW FAST THE LOW
PRESSURE RETREATS SOUTH, THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY
HAVE A VERY DREARY DAY AS SATURATED AIR IN THE LOWER LEVEL MOVES
INTO THOSE AREAS. IF THAT OCCURS, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS INSTEAD AND CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.
MONDAY EVENING, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
GENERATE SNOWFALL, THOUGH HOW MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE TWO MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES ARE IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING (SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS VS FLURRIES/DRIZZLE).
ENSEMBLES ARE REALLY SPLIT ON HOW MUCH QPF WE WOULD ACTUALLY GET DUE
TO THE FACTORS LISTED PRIOR, THOUGH AMOUNTS GENERALLY CLUSTER BELOW
6 INCHES. AS SUCH, HAVE NOT ISSUED ANYTHING AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH AND SEE IF MORE MOISTURE BECOME AVAILABLE OR IF BANDED
SNOW BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE DECREASING
TEMPERATURES. NOT ONLY WILL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA, BUT A
COLDER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE SAGGING SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE AREA, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 15+ MPH. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
NEGATIVES, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE COLDER AIR MASS CAN PENETRATE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS, WIND CHILLS COULD DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET WITH THE MOISTURE AND BREEZY WINDS,
BUT BE PREPARED FOR SOME COLDER WEATHER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL PROVIDE
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW. ALL OF
THE AREA IS LIKELY TO GET SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS CENTERED AROUND THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIND WHICH WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE OTHER BIG STORY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLDEST
DAYS, WITH EXTREME WIND CHILLS OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. SOME OUTLIER FORECASTS SUGGEST 30
BELOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD
BE APPROACHING ALL-TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. LIFE-
THREATENING WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES FROM THE WEST AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
40S. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, BUT BY SATURDAY MORNING THEY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND BY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS,
NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 17Z
SUNDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM
02Z MONDAY ONWARD.
FOR KMCK, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AROUND 10Z-12Z
SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTION MVFR (5SM) DURING THIS TIME AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. WINDS, NORTHWEST 5-10KTS THROUGH 10Z, THEN LIGHT/
VARIABLE. FROM 21Z ONWARD BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND
5-10KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
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