836
FXUS63 KGLD 161119
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND CHILLS AROUND -30
DEGREES AND AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -10 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING THREAT OF TRAVEL IMPACTS. AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, NEW
SNOWPACK AND LIGHTER WINDS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO EXHIBIT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THAT AREA FROM PLUMMETING TO MUCH.
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA A SURFACE HIGH CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLDER. I DID MAKE SOME LOCALIZED
LOWERING MOST NOTABLY AROUND THE ST. FRANCIS/WHEELER AND
CULBERTSON AREAS DUE TO A DEEPER SNOWPACK FROM THE SNOW BAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AROUND 6 INCHES FELL IN THOSE AREA ACCORDING TO
PUBLIC AND COCORAHS REPORTS. THOSE IN THE SNOWPACK MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT, A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BRINGING WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FORECAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LONG AND WELL
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY LESS THAN
A HALF INCH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MONDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUOUSLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO AN
EVENTUAL NORTH TO SOUTH UPWARD TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST RAP HINTS AT A POTENTIAL BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GOODLAND TO GRINNELL VICINITY AROUND 18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME SHALLOW 0.5 TO 1 KM LIFT AND A DECREASE OF ICE PRESENT IN
THE CLOUDS. I WANT TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES BEFORE ADDING IT INTO THE FORECAST. I WILL ALSO PASS ALONG
TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OMEGA OF 5-8 MICROBARS IS SEEN IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE RAP VIA
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS ALSO DOES SHOW SOME NEGATIVE EPV* AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES AROUND ZERO WHICH DOES CATCH MY EYE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING POTENTIAL. THIS IS ALSO MAY BE A REASON AS TO WHY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE BEEN FLIP
FLOPPING ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL AS IT IS STRUGGLING TO GET A
HANDLE ON THAT POTENTIAL. A SHIFT OF TAILS IN THE 12Z EFI WAS
ALSO SEEN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 SO THIS WILL FOR
SURE BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY EVENING. A SECOND ROUND MAY FORM WITH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS TO
ADD ON AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 - 1 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD IT OCCUR.
STILL DO CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE AND THEREFORE CURRENTLY
FORECAST MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS (3-6 INCHES) FOR MAINLY
ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS WITH EASTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY
FAVORED TO BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER THE SNOW BAND
POTENTIAL MAY END UP LOCALLY INCREASING THESE AMOUNTS. IT ALSO
DOES NEED TO BE POINTED OUT THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DOES
HAVE THE PERIOD OF BETTER LIFT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER,
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH WOULD
DRASTICALLY CUT DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION
FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW BAND FORMATION AND
LOCATION AND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THE PERIOD OF BEST
LIFT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER MY CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
ONTO THE TEMPERATURES, A CONTINUED VERY STRONG SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR A
PROLONGED DURATION OF DANGEROUS TO VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C AND LESS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ESPECIALLY WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY; WIND CHILLS MAY NOT EVEN GET ABOVE -15 DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WELL. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES I HAVE TRENDED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COLDER WITH AN ANTICIPATED QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TUESDAY
MORNING 850MB RANGING ANYWHERE FROM -16 TO
-19C. I CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN COLDER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE COLD AIR WHICH IS
TYPICALLY WHAT OCCURS IN THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES AND HAS
ACTUALLY VERIFIED ON A FEW OCCASIONS THIS SEASON SO FAR AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0 ACROSS THE WEST TO
-9 ACROSS THE EAST, CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -20 TO
-30 ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS AS
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 ARE FORECAST. THE
VARIABLE IN HOW COLD IT GETS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE THICKNESS
AND COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE BUT EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EXTREMELY FAST. THE COLDEST OF THE SOLUTIONS HAS
VALUES APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORD AND EVEN POTENTIALLY ALL
TIME RECORD LOWS. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH IN -15 WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH IN -25 WIND
CHILLS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. I HAVE OPTED THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE TO ISSUE A LONG DURATION EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY GIVEN THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS COLD AND THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF
IT. IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DO OCCUR WIND CHILL VALUES
MAY FALL AROUND THE -40 RANGE ALONG WITH AIR TEMPERATURES LESS
THAN -20 LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS NOT ONLY TO
HUMANS BUT TO LIVESTOCK AS WELL ESPECIALLY WITH CALVING
BIRTHING SEASON ONGOING. THOSE WITH ANY LIVESTOCK INTERESTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PREPARATIONS NOW AND EXPECT A LONG
DURATION EXTREME COLD EVENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL PROVIDE
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW. ALL OF
THE AREA IS LIKELY TO GET SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS CENTERED AROUND THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIND WHICH WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE OTHER BIG STORY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLDEST
DAYS, WITH EXTREME WIND CHILLS OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE. SOME OUTLIER FORECASTS SUGGEST 30
BELOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD
BE APPROACHING ALL-TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. LIFE-
THREATENING WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 50 BELOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES FROM THE WEST AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
40S. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, BUT BY SATURDAY MORNING THEY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND BY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL.
WESTERLY WINDS FOR KGLD ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH; A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW OF SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR KMCK A
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT. WINDS AT EACH
TERMINAL ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
BREEZY AS AN 850MB JET DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST WINDS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FOREGO THE INCLUSION OF A LLWS IN
THIS TAF BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE KMCK TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING SO
WILL GO WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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