805
FXUS63 KGLD 161952
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND CHILLS AROUND -30
DEGREES AND AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -10 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING THREAT OF TRAVEL IMPACTS. AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, NEW
SNOWPACK AND LIGHTER WINDS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO EXHIBIT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THAT AREA FROM PLUMMETING TO MUCH.
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA A SURFACE HIGH CLIPS THE
NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLDER. I DID MAKE SOME LOCALIZED
LOWERING MOST NOTABLY AROUND THE ST. FRANCIS/WHEELER AND
CULBERTSON AREAS DUE TO A DEEPER SNOWPACK FROM THE SNOW BAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AROUND 6 INCHES FELL IN THOSE AREA ACCORDING TO
PUBLIC AND COCORAHS REPORTS. THOSE IN THE SNOWPACK MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT, A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BRINGING WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FORECAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LONG AND WELL
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY LESS THAN
A HALF INCH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MONDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUOUSLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO AN
EVENTUAL NORTH TO SOUTH UPWARD TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST RAP HINTS AT A POTENTIAL BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GOODLAND TO GRINNELL VICINITY AROUND 18Z JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME SHALLOW 0.5 TO 1 KM LIFT AND A DECREASE OF ICE PRESENT IN
THE CLOUDS. I WANT TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES BEFORE ADDING IT INTO THE FORECAST. I WILL ALSO PASS ALONG
TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OMEGA OF 5-8 MICROBARS IS SEEN IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE RAP VIA
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS ALSO DOES SHOW SOME NEGATIVE EPV* AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES AROUND ZERO WHICH DOES CATCH MY EYE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING POTENTIAL. THIS IS ALSO MAY BE A REASON AS TO WHY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE BEEN FLIP
FLOPPING ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL AS IT IS STRUGGLING TO GET A
HANDLE ON THAT POTENTIAL. A SHIFT OF TAILS IN THE 12Z EFI WAS
ALSO SEEN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 SO THIS WILL FOR
SURE BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY EVENING. A SECOND ROUND MAY FORM WITH A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS TO
ADD ON AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 - 1 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD IT OCCUR.
STILL DO CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE AND THEREFORE CURRENTLY
FORECAST MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS (3-6 INCHES) FOR MAINLY
ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS WITH EASTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY
FAVORED TO BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER THE SNOW BAND
POTENTIAL MAY END UP LOCALLY INCREASING THESE AMOUNTS. IT ALSO
DOES NEED TO BE POINTED OUT THAT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DOES
HAVE THE PERIOD OF BETTER LIFT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER,
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH WOULD
DRASTICALLY CUT DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION
FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW BAND FORMATION AND
LOCATION AND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THE PERIOD OF BEST
LIFT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER MY CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH IN 6+ INCH AMOUNTS SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
ONTO THE TEMPERATURES, A CONTINUED VERY STRONG SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR A
PROLONGED DURATION OF DANGEROUS TO VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C AND LESS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO
GET ABOVE ZERO ESPECIALLY WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY; WIND CHILLS MAY NOT EVEN GET ABOVE -15 DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WELL. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES I HAVE TRENDED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COLDER WITH AN ANTICIPATED QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TUESDAY
MORNING 850MB RANGING ANYWHERE FROM -16 TO
-19C. I CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN COLDER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE COLD AIR WHICH IS
TYPICALLY WHAT OCCURS IN THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES AND HAS
ACTUALLY VERIFIED ON A FEW OCCASIONS THIS SEASON SO FAR AS WELL.
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0 ACROSS THE WEST TO
-9 ACROSS THE EAST, CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -20 TO
-30 ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS AS
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 ARE FORECAST. THE
VARIABLE IN HOW COLD IT GETS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE THICKNESS
AND COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE BUT EVEN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL EXTREMELY FAST. THE COLDEST OF THE SOLUTIONS HAS VALUES
APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORD AND EVEN POTENTIALLY ALL TIME RECORD
LOWS. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN -15
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH IN -25 WIND CHILLS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. I HAVE OPTED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO
ISSUE A LONG DURATION EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THIS COLD AND THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF IT. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DO OCCUR WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL
AROUND THE -40 RANGE ALONG WITH AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20
LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS NOT ONLY TO HUMANS BUT
TO LIVESTOCK AS WELL ESPECIALLY WITH CALVING BIRTHING SEASON
ONGOING. THOSE WITH ANY LIVESTOCK INTERESTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE PREPARATIONS NOW AND EXPECT A LONG DURATION EXTREME COLD
EVENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT LEAST 25 BELOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS, THEN 10 TO 15 BELOW FRIDAY MORNING. SO, THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH IS STILL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. AS FAR AS
SNOW, THERE MAY BE SOME LULL IN THE SNOW CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN 1" AT THIS TIME WITH THAT
SYSTEM.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. DRAMATICALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT COULD
PICK UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AT THE SURFACE. IF THEY DON'T, LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH WINDS AROUND
500-1000FT INCREASING TO NEAR 30 TO 35 KTS.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE 06Z HOUR.
EITHER WAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1000-2000FT CLOSE TO
SUNRISE TOMORROW. IF THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE LOW ALL OF TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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