223
FXUS63 KGLD 162231
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIND CHILLS AROUND -30
DEGREES AND AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -10 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS FORECAST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING THREAT OF TRAVEL IMPACTS. AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE MORE BANDED
INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK REMAINS FORECAST TO BRING SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER AIR AND SOME SNOW TO THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, NOT TOO MUCH IS FORECAST TO HAPPEN WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW CLOUDS PASSING OVER DUE TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO OUT OF THE EAST AT THE
SURFACE AS THE LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DEEPENS. WINDS
COULD REACH 15-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, ESPECIALLY WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVER THE AREA. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND
MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IF ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. UP TO AN INCH AND
A HALF OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE THE LAST OF THE "WARM" DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES
BOTH PUSH SOUTH AND BRING IN A COLDER AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FOR THOSE WHO SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
70, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THE REST OF THE
AREA TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PLATEAU IN THE TEENS WITH MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
EARLIER INTRUSION OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW IS NOT
SUPPOSED TO START UNTIL THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 850-
700MB IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFUL THOUGH AS THE
MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THAT LEVEL MAY SET UP A SEEDER/FEEDER SNOW
POTENTIAL IF THE DRY AIR IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
OTHERWISE, THE EVENING/NIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN BY
HOW MUCH MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY THE
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE DRIER WE ARE AND THE FASTER
THE HIGH PUSHES IN, THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE AMOUNTS AROUND 3
INCHES OR LESS EXCEPT FOR SMALL BANDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. THE SLOWER
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS (KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER) AND THE MORE
MOISTURE WE HAVE, THE BETTER THE CHANCE WE HAVE FOR MORE BANDS OF
LIFT PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, LIKELY LEADING TO TOTALS
AROUND 6-10 INCHES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO NOSE IN FAIRLY QUICKLY
AND LIMIT OUR OVERALL LIFT. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST MIRRORS THIS WITH
1-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND BANDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOW IN EITHER SCENARIO
LOOKS LIKELY TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
ADDING TO THE WEATHER INTRIGUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVES. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND
10-20 MPH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
NEARBY LOW AND HIGH, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GET DUE TO THE FORECAST
CLOUD COVER, SNOW, AND WIND. MORE SNOW AND MOISTURE MAY KEEP THE
DEWPOINTS UP, AND SLOW HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR AND COLDER AIR CAN
MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THE TEMPERATURE STAY CLOSER TO ZERO THAN IN
THE NEGATIVES, WIND CHILLS SHOULD STAY MORE IN THE TEENS.
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD EVEN HAVE WIND CHILLS STAY
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS INSTEAD.
TUESDAY, IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. EVEN IF
THE PRIOR NIGHT DOESN'T GET AS COOL AS EXPECTED, THE DAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT STAGNATE DURING THE DAY.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FLURRIES OR END AS THE DAY GOES ON AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY AGAIN AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES MORE INTO
THE AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS AND NEGATIVE TEENS, WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MORE
LIKELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND FOR ANY LOCALE THAT HAS CLOUD COVER
CLEAR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NIGHT. THANKFULLY, WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWER WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA, BUT IT WON'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO
GET WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S. -30 WIND CHILLS
WOULDN'T BE HARD TO GET IF THE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS JUST A BIT
TIGHTER THAN FORECAST AND WINDS REACH 10 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES. STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND LOWS BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT LEAST 25 BELOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS, THEN 10 TO 15 BELOW FRIDAY MORNING. SO, THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH IS STILL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. AS FAR AS
SNOW, THERE MAY BE SOME LULL IN THE SNOW CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN 1" AT THIS TIME WITH THAT
SYSTEM.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. DRAMATICALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MIX
OF SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS, SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS. GUSTS
TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM 02Z-08Z MONDAY. FROM 19Z ONWARD, EAST
10-20KTS.
FOR KMCK, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THERE IS A
PROB30 AROUND 02Z-06Z FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND 4SM IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. FROM 14Z ONWARD, A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AROUND
OVC009-013. WINDS, EASTERLY AROUND 10KTS. GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE FROM 06Z-14Z MONDAY, AND AGAIN FROM 17Z-22Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page