091
FXUS63 KGLD 171659
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM MST (12
PM CST) THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 27
DEGREES BELOW ZERO, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH 11 PM MST
(12 AM CST) THURSDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT KIT
CARSON COUNTY, CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO), GREELEY COUNTY FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT, TUESDAY
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF
ARCTIC AIR, PRODUCING RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT (ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO), TUESDAY NIGHT (7 BELOW TO
12 BELOW ZERO) AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1 BELOW TO 17 BELOW ZERO).
RECORD/NEAR RECORD COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ALSO FORECAST TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS) AND WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS). HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 10F TO MIDDLE 30S RANGE, WARMEST FROM KIT CARSON TO
LEOTI SOUTH, COLDEST ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER AREA.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 27 DEGREES BELOW ZERO,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAYTIME
WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO
RANGE. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED ONE PROLONGED WARNING VS BREAKING IT UP INTO PIECES
FOR EACH NIGHT AND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAY SO SIMPLIFY THE
MESSAGE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, PRODUCING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW DURING THE
DAY AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES, MAINLY FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS EXCEPT GREELEY
COUNTY, ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE GRAHAM COUNTY AREA FOR POSSIBLE WINTER
STORM WATCH OR WARNING AS THEY'RE RIGHT ON THE LOWER END OF
WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES TOTAL) AT THE MOMENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. IT WILL REMAIN
VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
FRIDAY...PARTS OF THE AREA (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25) ARE
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING AND THEN SOME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40. TO THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.
SATURDAY...WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S UNDER A GENERALLY
SUNNY SKY. LOW TEMPERATURES FLIRT A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
30.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS AT
12-17 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE ENE-NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (BY ~00Z
TUE). OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. 10-15 KNOT ENE TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
RECORD DAILY LOWS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND -4 (2006) -4 (1908) -1 (1953) -5 (1953)
MCCOOK -10 (1936) -9 (1929) -8 (1918) -7 (1911)
HILL CITY -10 (1936) -2 (1929) -4 (1918) -8 (1978)
BURLINGTON -11 (1942) -6 (2006) -8 (2018) -8 (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUMS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND 15 (2006) 9 (1955) 16 (1918) 19 (1971)
MCCOOK 10 (2006) 16 (1955) 9 (1918) 20 (2013)
HILL CITY 13 (2006) 13 (1955) 14 (1918) 18 (1968)
BURLINGTON 8 (2006) 9 (2006) 16 (2018) 16 (1913)
____________________________________
RECORD MONTHLY LOWS FOR FEBRUARY
____________________________________
GOODLAND -24 (2/15/2021)
MCCOOK -26 (2/8/1933)
HILL CITY -23 (2/8/1933)
BURLINGTON -24 (2/15/2021)
____________________________________
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS
____________________________________
GOODLAND -27 (12/22/1989)
MCCOOK -30 (1/12/1912)
HILL CITY -26 (12/22/1989)
BURLINGTON -25 (1/4/1959)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ090.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...024/VINCENT
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