556  
FXUS63 KGLD 171937  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1237 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM MST (12  
PM CST) THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 27  
DEGREES BELOW ZERO, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS.  
 
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH 11 PM MST  
(12 AM CST) THURSDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT KIT  
CARSON COUNTY, CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO), GREELEY COUNTY FOR  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.  
 
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT, TUESDAY  
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
- RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY,  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF  
ARCTIC AIR, PRODUCING RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW  
ZERO TONIGHT (ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO), TUESDAY NIGHT (7 BELOW TO  
12 BELOW ZERO) AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1 BELOW TO 17 BELOW ZERO).  
RECORD/NEAR RECORD COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (RECORD LOW MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES) ARE ALSO FORECAST TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS) AND WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS). HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO  
BE IN THE 10F TO MIDDLE 30S RANGE, WARMEST FROM KIT CARSON TO  
LEOTI SOUTH, COLDEST ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER AREA.  
 
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 27 DEGREES BELOW ZERO,  
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAYTIME  
WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO  
RANGE. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WE WENT AHEAD  
AND ISSUED ONE PROLONGED WARNING VS BREAKING IT UP INTO PIECES  
FOR EACH NIGHT AND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAY SO SIMPLIFY THE  
MESSAGE OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.  
 
THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
FROM THE NORTHWEST, PRODUCING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW DURING THE  
DAY AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL  
BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2  
TO 5 INCHES, MAINLY FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS EXCEPT GREELEY  
COUNTY, ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND YUMA COUNTY  
COLORADO. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.  
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE GRAHAM COUNTY AREA FOR POSSIBLE WINTER  
STORM WATCH OR WARNING AS THEY'RE RIGHT ON THE LOWER END OF  
WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES TOTAL) AT THE MOMENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS  
SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS  
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO WITH WIND  
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN A HALF INCH AT THIS  
TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOW BETTER MODERATION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS  
AND TEENS. GFS DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR  
CORNERS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,  
BUT THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE AT THAT TIME. EITHER  
WAY, APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH  
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA  
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY  
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL  
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND MONDAY IN  
THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH  
TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND  
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE  
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS AT  
12-17 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE ENE-NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (BY ~00Z  
TUE). OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
EVENING. 10-15 KNOT ENE TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
RECORD DAILY LOWS  
_______________________________________________________  
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21  
_______________________________________________________  
GOODLAND -4 (2006) -4 (1908) -1 (1953) -5 (1953)  
MCCOOK -10 (1936) -9 (1929) -8 (1918) -7 (1911)  
HILL CITY -10 (1936) -2 (1929) -4 (1918) -8 (1978)  
BURLINGTON -11 (1942) -6 (2006) -8 (2018) -8 (2018)  
 
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUMS  
_______________________________________________________  
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21  
_______________________________________________________  
GOODLAND 15 (2006) 9 (1955) 16 (1918) 19 (1971)  
MCCOOK 10 (2006) 16 (1955) 9 (1918) 20 (2013)  
HILL CITY 13 (2006) 13 (1955) 14 (1918) 18 (1968)  
BURLINGTON 8 (2006) 9 (2006) 16 (2018) 16 (1913)  
 
____________________________________  
RECORD MONTHLY LOWS FOR FEBRUARY  
____________________________________  
GOODLAND -24 (2/15/2021)  
MCCOOK -26 (2/8/1933)  
HILL CITY -23 (2/8/1933)  
BURLINGTON -24 (2/15/2021)  
 
____________________________________  
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS  
____________________________________  
GOODLAND -27 (12/22/1989)  
MCCOOK -30 (1/12/1912)  
HILL CITY -26 (12/22/1989)  
BURLINGTON -25 (1/4/1959)  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON  
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-  
027>029-041-042.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR  
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.  
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST  
THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST  
TUESDAY FOR COZ090.  
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON  
TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR  
NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...024  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
CLIMATE...99  
 
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