929
FXUS63 KGLD 172305
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- THE COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS (-20 TO -30F) ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING, TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA (EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO AND GREELEY
KS) FROM SUNSET THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED-OUT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS.. PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST, WHERE 850 MB TEMPS ARE -28 TO -30F.. WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT-TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
DAY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. COLDEST WIND CHILL
READINGS (-20 TO -30F) ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.. WIND CHILL
READINGS WARMER THAN -10F WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN (A FEW
HOURS EACH AFTERNOON). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST / FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA (EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO AND GREELEY
KS) FROM SUNSET THIS EVENING (~00Z TUE) THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING (~06Z WED). HIGH PROBABILITY OF 2 TO 5" OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION
PRODUCTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST) DO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITHIN A NARROW, WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND
ALONG/NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER, THOUGH.. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THESE
SCENARIOS ARE PREDICATED UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE,
QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF SNOW DROPPING A QUICK 4-6" LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA AT 2 PM
MST (21 UTC) THIS AFTERNOON DOES, IN FACT, INDICATE THAT A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.. LENDING SOME
CREDENCE TO SUCH A SCENARIO. AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF HWY
36.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW RANGE. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN A HALF INCH AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOW BETTER MODERATION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. GFS DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BUT THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE AT THAT TIME. EITHER
WAY, APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
FOR KGLD, THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A
WINTER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VISIBILITY IN SNOW WILL
RANGE FROM 1-5SM AND CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM OVC009-022. BOTH
ITEMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE SNOWFALL TRANSITIONS THROUGH
THE TERMINAL AREA. WINDS, EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY, THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST.
FOR KMCK, SNOW/LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL AREA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS(OVC022-035) THROUGH 07Z
TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE MVFR/IFR MIX(OVC008-015).
VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-3SM. WINDS,
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-20KTS THROUGH 05Z, THEN DROPPING TO AROUND
10KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
RECORD DAILY LOWS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND -4 (2006) -4 (1908) -1 (1953) -5 (1953)
MCCOOK -10 (1936) -9 (1929) -8 (1918) -7 (1911)
HILL CITY -10 (1936) -2 (1929) -4 (1918) -8 (1978)
BURLINGTON -11 (1942) -6 (2006) -8 (2018) -8 (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUMS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND 15 (2006) 9 (1955) 16 (1918) 19 (1971)
MCCOOK 10 (2006) 16 (1955) 9 (1918) 20 (2013)
HILL CITY 13 (2006) 13 (1955) 14 (1918) 18 (1968)
BURLINGTON 8 (2006) 9 (2006) 16 (2018) 16 (1913)
____________________________________
RECORD MONTHLY LOWS FOR FEBRUARY
____________________________________
GOODLAND -24 (2/15/2021)
MCCOOK -26 (2/8/1933)
HILL CITY -23 (2/8/1933)
BURLINGTON -24 (2/15/2021)
____________________________________
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS
____________________________________
GOODLAND -27 (12/22/1989)
MCCOOK -30 (1/12/1912)
HILL CITY -26 (12/22/1989)
BURLINGTON -25 (1/4/1959)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99
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