851
FXUS63 KGLD 182023
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT (12 AM CST WEDNESDAY
MORNING). A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CO AND NEARBY
KS AND NE BORDER COUNTIES.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
FEW TENTHS TO TWO INCHES. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 700MB AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DENDRITE GROWTH
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
LOOKING TO BE IN THE 3 BELOW TO LOWER TEENS RANGE, "WARMEST"
FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON. DAYTIME WIND CHILL READINGS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 18 BELOW ZERO TO 26 BELOW ZERO, SO THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL CONTINUE.
TONIGHT, A PRETTY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE CONVECTIVE
APPEARANCE TO IT WITH PRETTY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
PRESENTLY, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS TO NEARLY TWO INCHES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. PRESENTLY, THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COUNTY TO
GOODLAND, OAKLEY AND GOVE. THIS WAS PART OF THE REASONING LAST
NIGHT FOR RUNNING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST
(12 AM CST) TONIGHT. THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS LOW
TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WOULD HELP IN PRODUCING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. NON BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARENT AS COLD WHICH IS ALSO CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. BLENDING THE TWO PRODUCES LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 5
BELOW ZERO TO 13 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WIND CHILL READINGS DROP INTO
THE 20 BELOW ZERO TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THIS IS HANDLED WITH
THE EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY IN THE MORNING, THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS. IT WILL REMAIN
VERY COLD BUT NOT AS COLD AS TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WILL BE CHALLENGING. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOVING OVERHEAD
FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD OFFSET IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING INCLUDING FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 TO 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
COLDEST IN THE MCCOOK AND NORTON AREAS. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES DURING THE DAY
WITH A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST IF THE NAM AND
ECMWF MODELS VERIFY GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
COMPARED TO THE GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES, RANGING FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH LOWER 20S WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO
TRIBUNE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
ONE MORE COLD MORNING IN STORE ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS 10 TO 15 BELOW.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER AND NBM POPS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODELS HAVE LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH IT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN
WARMING. THERE IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BUT HAS LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS (AND SNOW) ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RETURN AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET (~00Z) AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END BY 09-12Z WED, MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AFTERWARD.. POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WED MORNING. E TO NE WINDS AT 9-13 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN TO
5-10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY WED
MORNING.. AS 1045-1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD DAILY LOWS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND -4 (2006) -4 (1908) -1 (1953) -5 (1953)
MCCOOK -10 (1936) -9 (1929) -8 (1918) -7 (1911)
HILL CITY -10 (1936) -2 (1929) -4 (1918) -8 (1978)
BURLINGTON -11 (1942) -6 (2006) -8 (2018) -8 (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUMS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND 15 (2006) 9 (1955) 16 (1918) 19 (1971)
MCCOOK 10 (2006) 16 (1955) 9 (1918) 20 (2013)
HILL CITY 13 (2006) 13 (1955) 14 (1918) 18 (1968)
BURLINGTON 8 (2006) 9 (2006) 16 (2018) 16 (1913)
____________________________________
RECORD MONTHLY LOWS FOR FEBRUARY
____________________________________
GOODLAND -24 (2/15/2021)
MCCOOK -26 (2/8/1933)
HILL CITY -23 (2/8/1933)
BURLINGTON -24 (2/15/2021)
____________________________________
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS
____________________________________
GOODLAND -27 (12/22/1989)
MCCOOK -30 (1/12/1912)
HILL CITY -26 (12/22/1989)
BURLINGTON -25 (1/4/1959)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...99
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