242
FXUS63 KGLD 190222
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
722 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
WITH RADAR COVERAGE DECREASING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION, HAVE
OPTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EARLY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. STILL SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER THE CWA, AND
ANOTHER BATCH NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER. THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING AWAY IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS DOES SHOW UP IN THE LATEST CAMS
(HRRR, RAP AND NAMNEST). THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS, IN GENERAL.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
DAY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS
RANGING FROM -20 TO -30F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE WARNING PERIOD, WIND CHILL READINGS WARMER THAN -10F
WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN (MAINLY A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION PRODUCTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST) CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CO AROUND
SUNSET (~00Z).. PROGRESSING ESE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS
AND SOUTHWEST NE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-2") OCCURRING IN THE ~02-10Z
TIME FRAME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (UP TO 3") CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
ONE MORE COLD MORNING IN STORE ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS 10 TO 15 BELOW.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER AND NBM POPS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODELS HAVE LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH IT SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 40S
AND 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S.
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN
WARMING. THERE IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BUT HAS LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
FOR KGLD, MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC010-025. 5-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE FROM 03Z-07Z W/ 1-2SM
POSSIBLE. FROM 18Z ONWARD, VFR. WINDS, EAST AROUND 10KTS
THROUGH 07Z, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY. BY 15Z, LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FOR KMCK, VFR/MVFR/IFR MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 19Z
WEDNESDAY DROPPING VISIBILITY TO 2-6SM. CEILINGS OVC020-035.
VFR FROM 19Z ONWARD. WINDS, NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 09Z,
THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD DAILY LOWS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND -4 (2006) -4 (1908) -1 (1953) -5 (1953)
MCCOOK -10 (1936) -9 (1929) -8 (1918) -7 (1911)
HILL CITY -10 (1936) -2 (1929) -4 (1918) -8 (1978)
BURLINGTON -11 (1942) -6 (2006) -8 (2018) -8 (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUMS
_______________________________________________________
FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
_______________________________________________________
GOODLAND 15 (2006) 9 (1955) 16 (1918) 19 (1971)
MCCOOK 10 (2006) 16 (1955) 9 (1918) 20 (2013)
HILL CITY 13 (2006) 13 (1955) 14 (1918) 18 (1968)
BURLINGTON 8 (2006) 9 (2006) 16 (2018) 16 (1913)
____________________________________
RECORD MONTHLY LOWS FOR FEBRUARY
____________________________________
GOODLAND -24 (2/15/2021)
MCCOOK -26 (2/8/1933)
HILL CITY -23 (2/8/1933)
BURLINGTON -24 (2/15/2021)
____________________________________
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS
____________________________________
GOODLAND -27 (12/22/1989)
MCCOOK -30 (1/12/1912)
HILL CITY -26 (12/22/1989)
BURLINGTON -25 (1/4/1959)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99
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