246
FXUS63 KGLD 191718
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) OF LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS ONE LAST WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER MINNESOTA. DESPITE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE SNOWFALL,
THERE COULD BE A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXCEPT IN THE FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON AREAS
WHERE THEY COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS. AFTERNOON WIND CHILL
READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THAT, ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 SHOULD PREVENT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
ACHIEVED WHILE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST UNDER
FRESH SNOW COVER AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS
THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. IT COULD BE EVEN COLDER EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IF THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKER OR ARE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE 25 BELOW ZERO AIR TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
THIS IS COVERED BY THE ONGOING EXTREME COLD WARNING.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES DURING THE DAY WITH
A 20%-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APP WEATHER SYSTEM
ROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME
WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
TRICKY GIVEN SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THEY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES IN MCCOOK AND NORTON TO
AROUND 20 FROM FLAGLER TO CHEYENNE WELLS AND MAYBE TRIBUNE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH WITH UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION FORECAST. CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DECREASES DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S, COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST UNDER A SLOWLY
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WARMEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 27) WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WE'LL
HAVE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FROM 850-500MB SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. PRESENTLY, THERE IS ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. IT MAY BE BREEZY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HRRR ALSO INDICATES A RISK OF LOW CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT KGLD WITH A LESSER RISK AT KMCK. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE DRY AIR AND HIGH CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL, BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION FOR
THE THURSDAY MORNING HOURS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-4F (1908) -1F (1953) -5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-2F (1929) -4F (1918) -8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-9F (1929) -8F (1918) -7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-6F (2006) -8F (2018) -8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........9F (1955) 16F (1918) 19F (1971)
HILL CITY.........13F (1955) 14F (1918) 18F (1968)
MCCOOK............16F (1955) 9F (1918) 20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........9F (2006) 16F (2018) 16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...99
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