138
FXUS63 KGLD 192303
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME PATCHY
CLOUDINESS DOES CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDINESS MAY
PERSIST AS WELL. THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK TO
NORTON) WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACTS FROM THE CLOUDS, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST. SO, WENT TOWARDS THE
COLDER GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST BUT CLOSER TO THE MEANS
SOUTHWEST. AREAS ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 BELOW OR COLDER, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS OF 30 TO 40 BELOW. ELSEWHERE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO TEENS BELOW, BUT IF
CLOUDS DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT EVEN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE COLDER. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING.
THURSDAY WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WE BRIEFLY GET UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN COLORADO. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRES AT 18Z, BUT WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
TO 20 BELOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES. THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN COLORADO IN THE
EVENING AND THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE CLOUDS. THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT. SOME
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
MIDDLE TEENS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDES BY ON SATURDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRAMATICALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S, AND HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE MOSTLY DRY BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT AND ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WITH A VERY DRY AND DEEP
SURFACE LAYER TO OVERCOME. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. WEDNESDAY COULD ALSO BE WINDY WITH
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
LOW/MID CLOUDS BY 09Z. WINDS, LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH 04Z, THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z
ONWARD.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN060 BY 16Z
THURSDAY. WINDS, LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH 16Z, THEN SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-4F (1908) -1F (1953) -5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-2F (1929) -4F (1918) -8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-9F (1929) -8F (1918) -7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-6F (2006) -8F (2018) -8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........9F (1955) 16F (1918) 19F (1971)
HILL CITY.........13F (1955) 14F (1918) 18F (1968)
MCCOOK............16F (1955) 9F (1918) 20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........9F (2006) 16F (2018) 16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99
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