496
FXUS63 KGLD 200812
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY, WHEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME PATCHY
CLOUDINESS DOES CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDINESS MAY
PERSIST AS WELL. THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK TO
NORTON) WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACTS FROM THE CLOUDS, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST. SO, WENT TOWARDS THE
COLDER GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST BUT CLOSER TO THE MEANS
SOUTHWEST. AREAS ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES OF 20 BELOW OR COLDER, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS OF 30 TO 40 BELOW. ELSEWHERE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO TEENS BELOW, BUT IF
CLOUDS DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT EVEN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE COLDER. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING.
THURSDAY WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WE BRIEFLY GET UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER TEENS IN COLORADO. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRES AT 18Z, BUT WIND CHILLS IN THE 10
TO 20 BELOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES. THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN COLORADO IN THE
EVENING AND THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN A HALF INCH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE CLOUDS. THE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT. SOME
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR HIGHS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
MIDDLE TEENS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDES BY ON SATURDAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NO MOIST AIR
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY TO FAVOR
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA
BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL LEAD
TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. THE GFS
IS SHOWING STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA AND AN 850 MB LLJ
AROUND 40-50 KTS. THIS GIVES CONFIDENCE TO A FAIRLY WINDY DAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS. IT'S POSSIBLE THESE
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE, BUT SEEING AS IT'S FIVE AND A HALF DAYS OUT,
THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10-15KTS. GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE FROM 18Z THU-00Z FRI.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS, LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-4F (1908) -1F (1953) -5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-2F (1929) -4F (1918) -8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-9F (1929) -8F (1918) -7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-6F (2006) -8F (2018) -8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........9F (1955) 16F (1918) 19F (1971)
HILL CITY.........13F (1955) 14F (1918) 18F (1968)
MCCOOK............16F (1955) 9F (1918) 20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........9F (2006) 16F (2018) 16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99
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