956
FXUS63 KGLD 201000
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-
STATE AREA THROUGH 11 AM MST (12 PM CST) TODAY WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...OUR EYES TURN TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
THAT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE HAS A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER WITH IT AND FROM THE 850-500MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS, YOU CAN SEE BANDING FEATURES OF WHAT
COULD BE ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NAM MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING ABOUT
40-80 J/KG OF CAPE AROUND 3KM. PRESENTLY, ATTEMPTS TO TIME WHERE
THESE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WOULD BE ARE A BIT DIFFICULT AND FOR
NOW HAVE 20%-30% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ZERO TO AN INCH, HIGHEST
GENERALLY IN THE I-70 VICINITY. LATER FORECASTS CAN HOPEFULLY DIAL
IN THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT BETTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 11 TO 19 DEGREE RANGE.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO, COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION OF 11
AM MST (12 PM CST). THIS AFTERNOON, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS
WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER IN THE 10 BELOW TO 16 BELOW ZERO
RANGE. TONIGHT, WIND CHILL READINGS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE
10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOWFALL CHANCES (20%-30%) CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY AS THE COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S (COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS (COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 27). OVERNIGHT WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST UNDER
A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WARMEST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NO MOIST AIR
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY TO FAVOR
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA
BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL LEAD
TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. THE GFS
IS SHOWING STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA AND AN 850 MB LLJ
AROUND 40-50 KTS. THIS GIVES CONFIDENCE TO A FAIRLY WINDY DAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS. IT'S POSSIBLE THESE
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE, BUT SEEING AS IT'S FIVE AND A HALF DAYS OUT,
THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE INCREASE FROM
17Z-23Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS FALL
BELOW 11KTS AFTER 06Z. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL AFTER ABOUT 08Z. HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH VCSH AT THE MOMENT.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z THEN
ESTABLISH A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 11KTS AFTER 17Z. PRESENTLY, THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE MENTIONED
IN THE KGLD TAF DOESNT APPEAR TO HAVE PRECIPITATION REACH THE
KMCK TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 20 FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-1F (1953) -5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-4F (1918) -8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-8F (1918) -7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-8F (2018) -8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........16F (1918) 19F (1971)
HILL CITY......... 14F (1918) 18F (1968)
MCCOOK............. 9F (1918) 20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........16F (2018) 16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
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