207  
FXUS63 KGLD 201740  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1040 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-  
STATE AREA THROUGH 11 AM MST (12 PM CST) TODAY WITH  
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.  
 
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES TONIGHT,  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY  
UNDER AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH  
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN  
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...OUR EYES TURN TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
THAT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS  
FEATURE HAS A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER WITH IT AND FROM THE 850-500MB  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS, YOU CAN SEE BANDING FEATURES OF WHAT  
COULD BE ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NAM MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING ABOUT  
40-80 J/KG OF CAPE AROUND 3KM. PRESENTLY, ATTEMPTS TO TIME WHERE  
THESE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WOULD BE ARE A BIT DIFFICULT AND FOR  
NOW HAVE 20%-30% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ZERO TO AN INCH, HIGHEST  
GENERALLY IN THE I-70 VICINITY. LATER FORECASTS CAN HOPEFULLY DIAL  
IN THE POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT BETTER.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 11 TO 19 DEGREE RANGE.  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND  
BELOW ZERO, COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 27.  
 
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION OF 11  
AM MST (12 PM CST). THIS AFTERNOON, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS  
WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER IN THE 10 BELOW TO 16 BELOW ZERO  
RANGE. TONIGHT, WIND CHILL READINGS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE  
10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.  
 
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOWFALL CHANCES (20%-30%) CONTINUE DURING THE  
DAY AS THE COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ARE CURRENTLY  
FORECAST. A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM  
INTO THE LOWER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S (COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,  
WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS (COLDEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 27). OVERNIGHT WIND  
CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.  
 
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST UNDER  
A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S (WARMEST SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 70) WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 112 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025  
 
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A  
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,  
CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NO MOIST AIR  
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY TO FAVOR  
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.  
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA  
BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL LEAD  
TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT NOT MUCH  
ELSE.  
 
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE  
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT  
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. THE GFS  
IS SHOWING STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA AND AN 850 MB LLJ  
AROUND 40-50 KTS. THIS GIVES CONFIDENCE TO A FAIRLY WINDY DAY BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL  
BE AROUND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS. IT'S POSSIBLE THESE  
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE, BUT SEEING AS IT'S FIVE AND A HALF DAYS OUT,  
THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025  
 
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. MAIN FOCUS IS WHAT  
HEIGHT THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR KGLD.  
MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE THAT KMCK SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODEL DATA IS MORE NEBULOUS  
REGARDING THE CLOUD DECK HEIGHT FOR KGLD. OBSERVATIONS TO THE  
NORTH OF KGLD (KSYF, KIML, KOGA) SHOW MVFR CEILINGS MOVING  
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE CLOUD DECK IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, NOT  
SOUTH. VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF KGLD.  
MODEL DATA IS MIXED REGARDING WHEN THE MVFR CEILING WILL END,  
OR EVEN IF IT WILL PAST 18Z. AM WONDERING IF SOME OF THE ISSUE  
IS THE STOUT INVERSION CAUSING A FALSE CEILING.  
 
AFTER CLOSER INSPECTION, AM THINKING THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR  
OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE  
INCOMING CLOUD COVER. ONCE THAT PASSES BY THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD  
RISE TO VFR AT KGLD.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025  
 
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:  
FEB 20 FEB 21  
 
 
GOODLAND..........-1F (1953) -5F (1953)  
HILL CITY.........-4F (1918) -8F (1978)  
MCCOOK............-8F (1918) -7F (1911)  
BURLINGTON........-8F (2018) -8F (2018)  
 
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
GOODLAND...........16F (1918) 19F (1971)  
HILL CITY..........14F (1918) 18F (1968)  
MCCOOK..............9F (1918) 20F (2013)  
BURLINGTON.........16F (2018) 16F (1913)  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING  
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.  
CO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR  
COZ090>092.  
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING  
FOR NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...CA  
AVIATION...JTL  
CLIMATE...99  
 
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