546
FXUS63 KGLD 202101
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD HAVE NARROW CORRIDORS
OF MORE THAN AN INCH UNDER THE BANDS OF SNOW.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
AFTER A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW STRIP OF SEVERAL INCHES;
MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. DUE TO THE NARROW NATURE OF THE
SNOW FALL, AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THE BAND WILL SET
UP, WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE
SNOWBANDS TO FORM IS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AHEAD OF IT CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE HELPING WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, MOVING
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF IT CORRIDORS OF LIFT WILL
FORM. WITHIN THE LAYER THE LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE, ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO
MORE EFFICIENTLY USE THE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT
WHERE WILL THESE NARROW BANDS SET UP. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
REFLECTIVE OF THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE. THE BEST TIME FOR SNOW TO FORM WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE COULD BE WINDOWS OF AN
INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, YIELDING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
OTHERWISE. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW -15 FOR
A WIND CHILL. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, EVEN THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
BUT NOT MEET THE CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SNOW
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND NOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD VALUES MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
IN.
MID WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE WINDY. LATEST MODEL PROBABILITY SHOWS 30% OR LESS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
HIGHER IS 20% OR LESS. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS TO OCCUR, SO THE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE AS THIS DAY NEARS.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. MAIN FOCUS IS WHAT
HEIGHT THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR KGLD.
MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS AGREE THAT KMCK SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODEL DATA IS MORE NEBULOUS
REGARDING THE CLOUD DECK HEIGHT FOR KGLD. OBSERVATIONS TO THE
NORTH OF KGLD (KSYF, KIML, KOGA) SHOW MVFR CEILINGS MOVING
SOUTH. HOWEVER THE CLOUD DECK IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, NOT
SOUTH. VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF KGLD.
MODEL DATA IS MIXED REGARDING WHEN THE MVFR CEILING WILL END,
OR EVEN IF IT WILL PAST 18Z. AM WONDERING IF SOME OF THE ISSUE
IS THE STOUT INVERSION CAUSING A FALSE CEILING.
AFTER CLOSER INSPECTION, AM THINKING THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
INCOMING CLOUD COVER. ONCE THAT PASSES BY THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD
RISE TO VFR AT KGLD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 20 FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-1F (1953) -5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-4F (1918) -8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-8F (1918) -7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-8F (2018) -8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........16F (1918) 19F (1971)
HILL CITY..........14F (1918) 18F (1968)
MCCOOK..............9F (1918) 20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........16F (2018) 16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...99
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