440
FXUS63 KGLD 210509
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1009 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD HAVE NARROW CORRIDORS
OF MORE THAN AN INCH UNDER THE BANDS OF SNOW.
- WATCHING A POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND STILL
REMAINS IN QUESTION HOWEVER ALONG WITH AMOUNTS. THE SNOW BAND
WHEREVER IT SETS UP WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED PROBABLY AROUND 30
MILES WIDE AND 30-40 MILES IN LENGTH.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
CONTINUING TO SEE THE SIGNAL FOR A SNOW BAND FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW 12-20
MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV* IN THAT LAYER AS WELL. THETA E LAPSE
RATES ARE HOWEVER A LITTLE HIGH AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE A LITTLE WEAK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SAID, YES IT MAY
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO IT BUT HOW LONG WILL THEY LAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CAUSING THE SNOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE SNOW BAND OCCURRING
BUT THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE EXACTLY WHERE AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND WITH IT. AT THIS TIME ECMWF MEMBERS
FAVOR IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR AND BACK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO; WHEREAS HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH TYPICALLY
HANDLES MESOSCALE FEATURES A LITTLE BETTER HAS SOME HINTS OF IT
AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME AM FAVORING THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LOCATION. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE
AMOUNTS. 1-2 INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND
BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE HOW LONG WILL IT LAST IN ONE SPOT. IF THE
LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER THEN SOME 3+ INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION
WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. REMAIN AWARE HOWEVER,
WHEREVER THIS BAND DOES SET UP AT WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AHEAD OF IT CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE HELPING WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, MOVING
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF IT CORRIDORS OF LIFT WILL
FORM. WITHIN THE LAYER THE LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE, ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO
MORE EFFICIENTLY USE THE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT
WHERE WILL THESE NARROW BANDS SET UP. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
REFLECTIVE OF THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE. THE BEST TIME FOR SNOW TO FORM WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE COULD BE WINDOWS OF AN
INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, YIELDING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
OTHERWISE. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW -15 FOR
A WIND CHILL. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, EVEN THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
BUT NOT MEET THE CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SNOW
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND NOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD VALUES MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
IN.
MID WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE WINDY. LATEST MODEL PROBABILITY SHOWS 30% OR LESS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
HIGHER IS 20% OR LESS. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS TO OCCUR, SO THE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE AS THIS DAY NEARS.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR BUT
HAVE BEEN SEEING SIGNALS OF DEVELOPMENT OUT NEAR AKRON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VFR WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE SCT030 UNTIL IT
SHOWS ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER FOR KGLD. SNOW BAND POTENTIAL STILL
REMAINS FOR KGLD ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR OTHER SNOWFALL HAS COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE 00Z TAF. GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BAND. IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THEN THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS FOR KMCK THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NO CONCERNS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT EACH TERMINAL WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SSW
AS THE SURFACE LOW LEADING TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........19F (1971)
HILL CITY..........18F (1968)
MCCOOK..............20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLIMATE...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page