691
FXUS63 KGLD 210750
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20%-30%) ARRIVES TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD HAVE NARROW CORRIDORS
OF MORE THAN AN INCH UNDER THE BANDS OF SNOW.
- WATCHING A POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND STILL
REMAINS IN QUESTION HOWEVER ALONG WITH AMOUNTS. THE SNOW BAND
WHEREVER IT SETS UP WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED PROBABLY AROUND 30
MILES WIDE AND 30-40 MILES IN LENGTH.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
CONTINUING TO SEE THE SIGNAL FOR A SNOW BAND FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW 12-20
MICROBARS OF LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV* IN THAT LAYER AS WELL. THETA E LAPSE
RATES ARE HOWEVER A LITTLE HIGH AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE A LITTLE WEAK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SAID, YES IT MAY
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO IT BUT HOW LONG WILL THEY LAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CAUSING THE SNOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE SNOW BAND OCCURRING
BUT THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE EXACTLY WHERE AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND WITH IT. AT THIS TIME ECMWF MEMBERS
FAVOR IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR AND BACK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO; WHEREAS HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH TYPICALLY
HANDLES MESOSCALE FEATURES A LITTLE BETTER HAS SOME HINTS OF IT
AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME AM FAVORING THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LOCATION. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE
AMOUNTS. 1-2 INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND
BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE HOW LONG WILL IT LAST IN ONE SPOT. IF THE
LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER THEN SOME 3+ INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE AMOUNTS AND EXACT LOCATION STILL IN QUESTION
WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. REMAIN AWARE HOWEVER,
WHEREVER THIS BAND DOES SET UP AT WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AHEAD OF IT CLOUD COVER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE HELPING WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, MOVING
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF IT CORRIDORS OF LIFT WILL
FORM. WITHIN THE LAYER THE LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE, ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO
MORE EFFICIENTLY USE THE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT
WHERE WILL THESE NARROW BANDS SET UP. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
REFLECTIVE OF THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT
BE THE CASE. THE BEST TIME FOR SNOW TO FORM WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE STABILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE COULD BE WINDOWS OF AN
INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES, YIELDING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
OTHERWISE. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW -15 FOR
A WIND CHILL. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, EVEN THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
BUT NOT MEET THE CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SNOW
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND NOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO
MOIST AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY
TO FAVOR MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH A FEW WAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THE FIRST 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN SWEEPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRI-
STATE AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE. THIS MOST LIKELY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. THE
GFS IS STILL SHOWING STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA AND AN
850 MB LLJ AROUND 40-50 KTS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH ARE NOT
SHOWING SUCH A STRONG SIGNAL. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40
KTS. THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, SO CONFIDENCE IN
MULTIPLE GUSTS REACHING 45 KTS IS ONLY AROUND 35-40%.
DUE TO THE SNOWPACK, MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
(>20%) THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THAT MOISTURE WON'T LAST
AND RH VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
WE'VE ALREADY MENTIONED WEDNESDAY'S WINDS, BUT FRIDAY IS SHOWING
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WINDS ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT NOTHING
IS CERTAIN YET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR BUT
HAVE BEEN SEEING SIGNALS OF DEVELOPMENT OUT NEAR AKRON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VFR WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE SCT030 UNTIL IT
SHOWS ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER FOR KGLD. SNOW BAND POTENTIAL STILL
REMAINS FOR KGLD ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR OTHER SNOWFALL HAS COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE 00Z TAF. GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BAND. IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THEN THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS FOR KMCK THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NO CONCERNS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT EACH TERMINAL WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SSW
AS THE SURFACE LOW LEADING TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEB 21
GOODLAND..........-5F (1953)
HILL CITY.........-8F (1978)
MCCOOK............-7F (1911)
BURLINGTON........-8F (2018)
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
GOODLAND...........19F (1971)
HILL CITY..........18F (1968)
MCCOOK..............20F (2013)
BURLINGTON.........16F (1913)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLIMATE...99
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