047
FXUS63 KGLD 220434
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
934 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER SNOW HAS
ENDED. PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM FLAGLER,
COLORADO EAST TO COLBY, KANSAS RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21). MANY ROADS
ARE SNOW COVERED. ANY SNOW THAT MELTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RAPIDLY FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE AFTER SUNSET.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WARMEST ON MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 60'S TO NEAR 70F.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I DID LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNINGS SNOW PACK. REASONING FOR TONIGHTS WAS DUE TO THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE 250-260 WIND DIRECTION WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOES FAVOR TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING AS MUCH.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE FRESHNESS OF THE SNOW PACK AND THE DEPTH OF
IT AT LEAST A SMALL LOWERING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SEEMED
PLAUSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
OVERVIEW: A SUBSIDENT SYNOPTIC REGIME.. CHARACTERIZED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.. WILL
PREVAIL IN THIS PERIOD. A COMPACT UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
WESTERN KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO MO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER LOW, SITUATED IN VICINITY OF THE
NV-UT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DIG SSE INTO SOUTHERN AZ
(TONIGHT) AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NM (SAT) AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS (SAT NIGHT).
TONIGHT: CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK WILL FOSTER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH.. LIGHT SSW TO W WINDS MAY PREVENT
FULL/MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BEING ACHIEVED. EXPECT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. WITH
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION) AND A SNOWPACK
(OF VARIED DEPTH) OVER THE REGION.. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
PRIMARILY BE ACCOMPLISHED VIA INSOLATION/DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S TO MID 50S.. COOLEST WHERE
DEEP SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SUBSIDENT SYNOPTIC REGIME
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD, INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF MODEST RIDGING OVER THE 4-CORNERS, CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS (SUN-TUE).. FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO NW-
NNW FLOW ALOFT (WED-THU) AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON BOTH MON-TUE. A COOLING
TREND (NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES)
WILL FOLLOW, ON WED, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.. ALONG WITH EPISODIC BREEZY NW-N WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
SUCCESSION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT EACH TERMINAL FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND SHIFTS IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SOME GUIDANCE, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS PICKING UP ON SOME RIVER
BED FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT MAY
BE FROM THE ANTICIPATED WARMING AND ULTIMATELY MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
IT DOES STAY CONFINED TO THE RIVER BEDS OR IF IT WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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