399
FXUS63 KGLD 220733
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1233 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER SNOW HAS
ENDED. PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM FLAGLER,
COLORADO EAST TO COLBY, KANSAS RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21). MANY ROADS
ARE SNOW COVERED. ANY SNOW THAT MELTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RAPIDLY FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE AFTER SUNSET.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WARMEST ON MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 60'S TO NEAR 70F.
- WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
- WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD SEE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. I DID LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNINGS SNOW PACK. REASONING FOR TONIGHTS WAS DUE TO THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE 250-260 WIND DIRECTION WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOES FAVOR TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING AS MUCH.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE FRESHNESS OF THE SNOW PACK AND THE DEPTH OF
IT AT LEAST A SMALL LOWERING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SEEMED
PLAUSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
OVERVIEW: A SUBSIDENT SYNOPTIC REGIME.. CHARACTERIZED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.. WILL
PREVAIL IN THIS PERIOD. A COMPACT UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
WESTERN KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO MO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER LOW, SITUATED IN VICINITY OF THE
NV-UT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WILL DIG SSE INTO SOUTHERN AZ
(TONIGHT) AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NM (SAT) AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS (SAT NIGHT).
TONIGHT: CLEAR SKIES AND A SNOWPACK WILL FOSTER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH.. LIGHT SSW TO W WINDS MAY PREVENT
FULL/MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BEING ACHIEVED. EXPECT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. WITH
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION) AND A SNOWPACK
(OF VARIED DEPTH) OVER THE REGION.. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
PRIMARILY BE ACCOMPLISHED VIA INSOLATION/DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S TO MID 50S.. COOLEST WHERE
DEEP SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO
MOIST AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY
TO FAVOR MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A FEW WAVES
MOVING THROUGH.
TUESDAY, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE CAUSED A LOW-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MORNING, BUT LIKELY (75%) LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, LETTING
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG-TERM, HOWEVER EACH DAY SHOULD WARM TO AT
LEAST THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT ONCE AGAIN,
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUALLY LOOKED WEAKER. THE GFS IS STILL
SHOWING AN 850 MB LLJ AROUND 40 KTS AND THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH ARE
STARTING TO SHOW THESE LLJ SPEEDS, TOO. HOWEVER, THE LLJ LOOKS TO
OCCUR AROUND 6-12Z WEDNESDAY, WHEN OUR DIURNAL INVERSION NORMALLY
BUFFERS THE SURFACE FROM THE 850 WINDS, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN 40
KTS WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IF THE WINDS ARE CONTINUOUS, THE PBL WOULD
REMAIN MIXED, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE GUSTS REACHING 40 KTS IS ONLY AROUND 35-40%.
DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEK, RH
VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. WE'VE
ALREADY MENTIONED WEDNESDAY'S WINDS, BUT FRIDAY IS SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER; CONFIDENCE IN
HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ONLY AROUND 15-20% WITH FRIDAY
SO FAR LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT'S TOO FAR
OUT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT THIS LOW WILL DO AND WHEN IT'LL DO IT, BUT
IT IS A FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT EACH TERMINAL FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND SHIFTS IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SOME GUIDANCE, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS PICKING UP ON SOME RIVER
BED FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT MAY
BE FROM THE ANTICIPATED WARMING AND ULTIMATELY MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
IT DOES STAY CONFINED TO THE RIVER BEDS OR IF IT WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TRIGG
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