725
FXUS63 KGLD 221734
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MELTING SNOW ON SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND AREA
ROADS WILL RAPIDLY FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE AFTER SUNSET. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE SNOW COVER IS DEEPER.
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMEST
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 60'S TO NEAR 70F.
- POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THE TRI STATE REGION IS LOOKING
AT CLEAR SKIES W/ A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALONG/EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. WEST OF THERE, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10
MPH. TEMPERATURES AS OF 100 AM MST ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE EAST UNDER THE
RIDGE. WEST, THERE IS A RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A TROUGH EXITING EASTERN KANSAS IS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FROM THE LATEST GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE, THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ALLOWING FOR MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
THE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SNOWPACK
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF COLBY, KANSAS. THIS
SHOULD BE MITIGATED AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED. ALSO,
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TONIGHT IN SOME
OF THE RIVER CHANNELS/ LOW LYING AREAS. MONDAY COULD BRING
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE CURRENT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA DOES
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SOME DURING THE DAY, W/ A WEAK TROUGH
BUILDING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
W/ SUNNY SKIES AREA-WIDE. THE FULL SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AN
EXPECTED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE AREA W/ NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW YESTERDAY
WILL SEE LOWER HIGHS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOWPACK OVER
THE AFFECTED LOCALES. NONETHELESS, MELTING WILL OCCUR. CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE A RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECT FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS, TEMPERED SOME BY THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED.
THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM MELTING INTO THE GROUND, NEARBY RIVER
CHANNELS AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY
FREEZING FOG. THE NAM, NAMNEST AND HIRESWARW DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL BUT COULD BE THE OUTLIERS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE(20-30%).
NONETHELESS, WITH GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING CURRENTLY, MUCH
OF THE MELTED SNOW WILL REMAIN ON THE SURFACE, INCREASING THE RH
POTENTIAL IN LOW LYING AREAS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO GIVE
THE AREA A CHANCE FOR FOG. HAVE PUT IN A LOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST CONFINED TO MAINLY RIVER CHANNELS/LOW LYING AREAS FOR
NOW. IF IT OCCURS, LOOKING IN THE 06Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FOR A
START CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE TIME, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON
MONDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH A 700/850MB JET(40-50KT) THAT SKIRTS
THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA. THE PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO MORE
WESTERN GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING SOME MIXING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SURFACE IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, MAINLY FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.
FOR TEMPS, THE FIRST 24 HOURS(TODAY/TONIGHT) WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED FROM THE SNOWFALL RECEIVED YESTERDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE WIDELY FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-70, TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THE MID
50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. THE AREA FROM FLAGLER, COLORADO
EASTWARD INTO THE BREWSTER, KANSAS AREA SAW THE MOST SNOW
YESTERDAY. THESE LOCALES SHOULD SEE DECENT MELTING TODAY AND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, SHOULD SEE A BETTER
CONSISTENCY W/ THE REST OF THE CWA GOING INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AREA WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THE
SURROUNDING AREA, AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF HOW MUCH MELTS
TODAY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH A RANGE DURING THE
DAY WITH UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
EVEN WARMER NUMBERS FOR MONDAY WITH A DAYTIME RANGE MAINLY IN
THE 60S AREA-WIDE. SOME LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND SOUTH OF
I-70 COULD SEE THE 70F MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE MID 30S. MONDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MID
30S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
NO MOIST AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG- TERM, ALLOWING
THE SKY TO FAVOR MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS.
AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
TUESDAY, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE CAUSED A LOW-LEVEL LOW TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MORNING, BUT LIKELY (75%) LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, LETTING
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG-TERM, HOWEVER EACH DAY SHOULD WARM TO AT
LEAST THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10.
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUALLY LOOKED
WEAKER. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING AN 850 MB LLJ AROUND 40 KTS AND
THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH ARE STARTING TO SHOW THESE LLJ SPEEDS,
TOO. HOWEVER, THE LLJ LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 6-12Z WEDNESDAY,
WHEN OUR DIURNAL INVERSION NORMALLY BUFFERS THE SURFACE FROM THE
850 WINDS, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN 40 KTS WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
IF THE WINDS ARE CONTINUOUS, THE PBL WOULD REMAIN MIXED,
ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE GUSTS REACHING 40 KTS IS ONLY AROUND
35-40%.
DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT
WEEK, RH VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE DIPPING INTO THE
TEENS. WE'VE ALREADY MENTIONED WEDNESDAY'S WINDS, BUT FRIDAY IS
SHOWING SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER; CONFIDENCE IN HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ONLY
AROUND 15-20% WITH FRIDAY SO FAR LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT'S TOO
FAR OUT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT THIS LOW WILL DO AND WHEN IT'LL DO
IT, BUT IT IS A FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND 10-15 KNOT WNW TO WSW WINDS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A FEW
TRANSIENT WISPS OF CIRRUS (FEW250), CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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