587
FXUS63 KGLD 261835
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL FOR LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
PROVIDING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
DECREASING AFTER. NAM/GFS MODELS SHOWING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
PRODUCE INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY, REACHING THE HIGHWAY 83 AREA LATE. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT A 20% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY AND LEOTI. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
RECORD/NEAR RECORD RANGE OF LOWER TO UPPER 80S, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. OVERNIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR THE RETURN OF
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FINALLY GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS DO DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
IS FRIDAY NIGHT, EXITING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FAIRLY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM TO WILL PASS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE EXITING. GUIDANCE SPLITS FOR THE MON-MON
NIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE GFS BRINGING ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
AND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DOES FOLLOW THIS ONE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH EACH SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND EACH TIME AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
THE NORTHERN PASSAGE TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
WITH A 15-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD, EACH SUCCESSIVE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IN
TANDEM WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION,
WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST LOCALES, MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RETURN OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK, IS
GOING TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND THUS THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE. BASED ON THE
MAINLY NORTHERN TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE OVERALL QPF WILL BE SKEWED TO LOCALES ALONG/NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE WHERE 0.40-1.00" IS POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF I-70,
0.40" DOWN TO 0.10-0.20" IN THE GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTY AREAS.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY
50S/60S FOR SATURDAY AND COOLER FOR SUNDAY WITH 40S/50S EXPECTED.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY 50S FOR MONDAY, ON TUESDAY A WIDE RANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. SOUTH OF THERE, MID TO UPPER 60S. AND FOR WEDNESDAY, 60S
AREA-WIDE, WITH WARMEST LOCALES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT GOING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, 20S/30S FOR SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO ALL 20S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY 30S THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. FROM 01Z-03Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 12KTS, FALLING BELOW 12KTS FROM 04Z-09Z. AFTER
10Z, WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEST THEN NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. FROM 01Z-07Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KTS
ARE FORECAST. AFTER 08Z, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE
WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG
IN THE 10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME AS A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOVES
OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1988 87 86
HILL CITY 1989 85 88
BURLINGTON 2004 86 84
MCCOOK 1962 82 86
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1963 89 86
HILL CITY 1963 90 84
BURLINGTON 1962 83 83
MCCOOK 1963 86 86
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...CA/KAK
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