675
FXUS63 KGLD 270429
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL FOR LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- RED WILLOW AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE 60 MPH WINDS AND 1 INCH HAIL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
PROVIDING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
DECREASING AFTER. NAM/GFS MODELS SHOWING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOVING INTO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
PRODUCE INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY, REACHING THE HIGHWAY 83 AREA LATE. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT A 20% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY AND LEOTI. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
RECORD/NEAR RECORD RANGE OF LOWER TO UPPER 80S, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. OVERNIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR THE RETURN OF
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, WE CAN EXPECT A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO BUILD IN BEFORE A FEW TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARM CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AN
850 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CAUSE A MODERATELY STRONG 850
MB LLJ TO FORM. THIS LLJ WILL BRING IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASE DEW POINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA, ALLOWING A DRY LINE TO
FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE IS STILL DEBATE WHERE THIS
DRYLINE WILL SET UP, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 83 AND
27. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, A LEE SURFACE LOW FORMS IN EASTERN
COLORADO. OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA, CAUSING PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE 60 MPH WIND AND 1 INCH HAIL. BOTH
CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, AROUND THE 200-1000 J/KG MARK
FOR CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 15-50 KTS. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO OVERLAP, ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIME THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE
STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY, NOT
AN IDEAL TIME FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH THIS IN MIND, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS AROUND 60-70%, CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE STORMS IS 5% WITH BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WITH CHANCES LOWERING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WE REACH THE
DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE, WE CAN STILL EXPECT
PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EFFECTIVELY 0 AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS LESS THAN 20%.
ALSO, ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS INCREASES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THE
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS GUSTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERALL. THERE'S ABOUT A 30% CHANCE
OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE HIT.
SATURDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT CONFUSED AGAIN. THE GFS IS
SHOWING THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
EAST OVER KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY LEADING TO PROLONGED
RAINFALL. THE CMC-NH HAS THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, LIMITING THE RETURN FLOW AND PRECIPITATION WE
RECEIVE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT THE CMC-NH HAS, EXCEPT SATURDAY
EVENING IT HAS ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMING IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE
ECMWF'S GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'D GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY, BUT SOME MORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW OF THESE THREE PLUS THE GEFS, A MIXTURE OF THE THREE LOOK MOST
LIKELY. THE LOW WILL STALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER LEE LOW WILL FORM, MEET UP WITH THE
ORIGINAL LEE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN THAT
COMBINED LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW MOVES IN. IN ANY SITUATION, WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE MUCH COOLER, LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 DURING THE DAY AND
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN. AS IT STANDS,
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE EVENT AND TEMPERATURES
BARELY COOLING UNDER FREEZING, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE PATCHY BLACK ICE COULD FORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE, SUNDAY LOOKS TO ONLY WARM TO
AROUND 50.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA, BEFORE YET
ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMS. CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THIS FINAL LEE LOW WILL DO
IS VERY LOW. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERLY 30 KTS LLJ TO FORM, BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. THIS COULD CAUSE MORE STORMS TUESDAY.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CAPE - CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
J - JOULES
KG - KILOGRAM
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WINDS GO CALM.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1988 87 86
HILL CITY 1989 85 88
BURLINGTON 2004 86 84
MCCOOK 1962 82 86
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1963 89 86
HILL CITY 1963 90 85
BURLINGTON 1962 83 83
MCCOOK 1963 86 88
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...CA/KAK
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