747
FXUS63 KGLD 270859
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NEAR CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL FOR LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- RED WILLOW AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
INCLUDE 60 MPH WINDS AND 1 INCH HAIL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AROUND I-70 TO HIGHWAY 40.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH
SOME 40S WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTHERLY, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON
THE CHANCES TODAY/FRIDAY FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT, LOCALIZED NEAR
CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. AND FINALLY CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BROAD, AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS REGION, SETTING UP
ZONAL FLOW FOR TODAY. THE LATEST GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A CONTINUED
EASTERLY TRANSITION OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SETTING UP SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW REMAINS INTO THE SAT-SAT NIGHT TIMEFRAME, BUT
WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SET TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE AND UP TO 850MB, A PERSISTENT TROUGH/LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MEANDER OVER THE TRI STATE AREA
TODAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WORKING FURTHER EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE
SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT, FOR TODAY W/ WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SURFACE TO 500MB. 850MB TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE +20C TO +24C
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH LOW
RH READINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA CLOSEST TO THE
LOW/TROUGH. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH NEAR
CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS. THERE IS A CONTINUED 15-20% CHANCE THIS
EVENING FOR A SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTREME SE CWA. INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT, BUT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE INVERTED-
V SOUNDINGS, MUCH OF THE PRECIP COULD BE HIGH-BASED AND END UP AS
SPRINKLES/VIRGA. DCAPE IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME IS RANGING IN THE
700-1000 J/KG RANGE. VERY LOW CHANCE(5%) FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP, BUT
WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD TYPE VIA GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA.
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO MEANDER
EAST AND EXTEND INTO THE KS/NE REGION. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, SO A REPEAT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE CWA, AREAS IN THE E/NE COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP BY THE EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AGAIN PRESENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION (15-
20%) TO DEVELOP. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE(WIND/HAIL THREATS). DCAPE IS NEAR THE
1000J/KG RANGE BUT LOWERS INTO SUNSET.
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...BASICALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY AS
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. THERE COULD BE A 15-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
PERSIST AS A RESULT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE/850MB SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OVER THE CWA AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THEIR PASSAGE,
RESULTING IN A 50-70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
EVENING, UP FROM A 20-45% CHANCE DURING THE DAY. HOURLY GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR DOES WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO/MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SOME
LIGHT ACCUM COULD BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND FOR FRIDAY W/ MOST AREAS SEEING A RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. GOING INTO SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE
60S, W/ LOCALES ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SEEING NEAR/AROUND THE 70F
MARK. WITH HUMIDITY BEING ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY, HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECASTED HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND UPPER 40 TO MID 50S EAST OF THERE.
WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. GOING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT, BUT 40S STRETCH TO
LOCALES ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. EAST OF THERE, LOW 50S. AND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S
AREA-WIDE FROM 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, WE CAN EXPECT A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO BUILD IN BEFORE A FEW TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARM CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AN
850 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CAUSE A MODERATELY STRONG 850
MB LLJ TO FORM. THIS LLJ WILL BRING IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASE DEW POINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA, ALLOWING A DRY LINE TO
FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE IS STILL DEBATE WHERE THIS
DRYLINE WILL SET UP, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 83 AND
27. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, A LEE SURFACE LOW FORMS IN EASTERN
COLORADO. OVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA, CAUSING PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE 60 MPH WIND AND 1 INCH HAIL. BOTH
CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE MARGINAL, AROUND THE 200-1000 J/KG MARK
FOR CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 15-50 KTS. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO OVERLAP, ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIME THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE
STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY, NOT
AN IDEAL TIME FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH THIS IN MIND, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS AROUND 60-70%, CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE STORMS IS 5% WITH BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WITH CHANCES LOWERING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WE REACH THE
DRYLINE. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE, WE CAN STILL EXPECT
PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EFFECTIVELY 0 AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS LESS THAN 20%.
ALSO, ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS INCREASES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THE
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS GUSTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERALL. THERE'S ABOUT A 30% CHANCE
OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA WILL BE HIT.
SATURDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BIT CONFUSED AGAIN. THE GFS IS
SHOWING THE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE CWA BEFORE MOVING
EAST OVER KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY LEADING TO PROLONGED
RAINFALL. THE CMC-NH HAS THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, LIMITING THE RETURN FLOW AND PRECIPITATION WE
RECEIVE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT THE CMC-NH HAS, EXCEPT SATURDAY
EVENING IT HAS ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMING IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE
ECMWF'S GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'D GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY, BUT SOME MORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW OF THESE THREE PLUS THE GEFS, A MIXTURE OF THE THREE LOOK MOST
LIKELY. THE LOW WILL STALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND AS THE 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, ANOTHER LEE LOW WILL FORM, MEET UP WITH THE
ORIGINAL LEE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN THAT
COMBINED LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW MOVES IN. IN ANY SITUATION, WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE MUCH COOLER, LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 DURING THE DAY AND
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN. AS IT STANDS,
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE EVENT AND TEMPERATURES
BARELY COOLING UNDER FREEZING, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING
SNOW. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE PATCHY BLACK ICE COULD FORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE, SUNDAY LOOKS TO ONLY WARM TO
AROUND 50.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA, BEFORE YET
ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMS. CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THIS FINAL LEE LOW WILL DO
IS VERY LOW. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERLY 30 KTS LLJ TO FORM, BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. THIS COULD CAUSE MORE STORMS TUESDAY.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CAPE - CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
J - JOULES
KG - KILOGRAM
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND WINDS GO CALM.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1988 87 87
HILL CITY 1989 85 88
BURLINGTON 2004 86 84
MCCOOK 1962 82 85
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1963 89 87
HILL CITY 1963 90 85
BURLINGTON 1962 83 84
MCCOOK 1963 86 88
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN
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