154
FXUS63 KGLD 271600
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL FOR LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- RED WILLOW AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
INCLUDE 60 MPH WINDS AND 1 INCH HAIL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AROUND I-70 TO HIGHWAY 40.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH
SOME 40S WORKING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTHERLY, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON
THE CHANCES TODAY/FRIDAY FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT, LOCALIZED NEAR
CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. AND FINALLY CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BROAD, AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS REGION, SETTING UP
ZONAL FLOW FOR TODAY. THE LATEST GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A CONTINUED
EASTERLY TRANSITION OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SETTING UP SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW REMAINS INTO THE SAT-SAT NIGHT TIMEFRAME, BUT
WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SET TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE AND UP TO 850MB, A PERSISTENT TROUGH/LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MEANDER OVER THE TRI STATE AREA
TODAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WORKING FURTHER EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE
SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT, FOR TODAY W/ WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SURFACE TO 500MB. 850MB TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE +20C TO +24C
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH LOW
RH READINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN CWA CLOSEST TO THE
LOW/TROUGH. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH NEAR
CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS. THERE IS A CONTINUED 15-20% CHANCE THIS
EVENING FOR A SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTREME SE CWA. INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT, BUT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE INVERTED-
V SOUNDINGS, MUCH OF THE PRECIP COULD BE HIGH-BASED AND END UP AS
SPRINKLES/VIRGA. DCAPE IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME IS RANGING IN THE
700-1000 J/KG RANGE. VERY LOW CHANCE(5%) FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP, BUT
WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD TYPE VIA GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA.
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO MEANDER
EAST AND EXTEND INTO THE KS/NE REGION. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, SO A REPEAT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE CWA, AREAS IN THE E/NE COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP BY THE EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AGAIN PRESENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION (15-
20%) TO DEVELOP. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE(WIND/HAIL THREATS). DCAPE IS NEAR THE
1000J/KG RANGE BUT LOWERS INTO SUNSET.
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...BASICALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD
SEE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY AS
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. THERE COULD BE A 15-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
PERSIST AS A RESULT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE/850MB SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MEANDER OVER THE CWA AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THEIR PASSAGE,
RESULTING IN A 50-70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
EVENING, UP FROM A 20-45% CHANCE DURING THE DAY. HOURLY GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR DOES WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO/MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SOME
LIGHT ACCUM COULD BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND FOR FRIDAY W/ MOST AREAS SEEING A RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. GOING INTO SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE
60S, W/ LOCALES ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SEEING NEAR/AROUND THE 70F
MARK. WITH HUMIDITY BEING ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY, HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FORECASTED HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND UPPER 40 TO MID 50S EAST OF THERE.
WARMEST LOCALES WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. GOING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT, BUT 40S STRETCH TO
LOCALES ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. EAST OF THERE, LOW 50S. AND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE LOWER 20S
AREA-WIDE FROM 06Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PROGRESSIVE, LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY SPEEDY ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (SUN-MON) WILL UNDERGO A COMPLEX TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE AND LESS-PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY EARLY-
MID WEEK (TUE-THU).
SUNDAY: PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN TRANSITION,
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL IN THIS PERIOD.. AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLONIC
SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A ~115 KNOT WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC
COAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, MOST
LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE (I-25,
PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE).. PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE, AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FUNCTION OF [1] THE CANADIAN AIRMASS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH (GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM +2 TO -3C DURING THE DAY, COLDEST IN NEBRASKA) AND
[2] CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR
SNOW) MAY BE RATE-DEPENDENT IN NATURE. IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
IS PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY: EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS SHALLOWS
AND RECEDES EASTWARD/DOWNHILL (HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY) AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES.. AS THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT
REORIENTS/TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND.. WARMEST AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN CO.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WHILE 00Z
03/27 OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE
SENSE THAT BOTH INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE
PATTERN, THE SIMILARITY ENDS THERE.. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY
DIVERGE AT THE ONSET OF THE TRANSITION (TUE), TO SUCH AN EXTENT
THAT.. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PHASE SHIFTED ~180 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER.. IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW
AVERAGE', IN THIS CONTEXT, IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH / INHERENT TO INCREASED
PATTERN COMPLEXITY.. E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF
WAVES, MULTIBRANCHED JET / WAVE INTERACTIONS AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVE / DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE,
AMONG OTHERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 20Z-01Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS
DEVELOP AROUND 02Z, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 05Z WHEN THEY
BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 15KTS. DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY, WINDS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE WEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z. FROM 05Z-11Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS ARE
FORECAST, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AFTER 12Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1988 87 87
HILL CITY 1989 85 88
BURLINGTON 2004 86 84
MCCOOK 1962 82 85
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1963 89 87
HILL CITY 1963 90 85
BURLINGTON 1962 83 84
MCCOOK 1963 86 88
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JN
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