398
FXUS63 KGLD 280904
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE 60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UNDER AN
INCH. PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING.
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT FEW
SOME ISOLATED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH A
FEW SPOTS AROUND 60F. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
IN RED WILLOW COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST. THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CO/KS/NE BORDER.
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN SPOTS W/ GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF
GREAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING AREA-WIDE. WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM +22C TO +26C FROM THE LATEST GFS/NAM, EXPECTING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RH READINGS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR MOST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH DOES MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING FOR FAR EASTERN ZONES TO REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR RH. THE
RESULT WILL BE LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. RH WILL HIT CRITERIA,
BUT WINDS WILL BE LACKING AS THE GRADIENT LIGHTENS UP DURING THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE EAST, SETTING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE HAS SOME INSTABILITY
AND SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE(700MB AND ABOVE) AND COULD
PRODUCE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, MAINLY FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY. SPC
HAS THIS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THIS EVENING
FOR A WIND(60 MPH)/HAIL(1 INCH) THREAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILES DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. IF ANY STORMS FORM,
WIND MAY MORE THAN LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT, AS DCAPE IS RANGING
FROM 300-600 J/KG AND DOES DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE
SPC TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS DO DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF EACH SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE ENTIRE CWA IS SET
TO SEE SOME QPF. INITIALLY 20-50% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GIVES WAY TO WIDE RANGE FROM 30-
40% EAST TO 60-70% CHANCE WEST BASED ON CURRENT SYSTEM TRACK. ON
SUNDAY A BROAD 30-40% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO A 15-30%
CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. P-TYPE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS BASED ON EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE EVENING HOURS WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SNOW ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BASED ON TEMPERATURES/TIMING WILL AMOUNT TO
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUM, AIDED BY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING 90F. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE A
FEW RECORD HIGHS. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL
HAVE HIGHS RANGE WIDELY W/ UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. SOUTH OF I-70, MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. WARMEST
AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN KANSAS. FOR SUNDAY, COOLER
WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25. EAST OF THERE, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO
MID 20S EXPECTED. ANY WIND CHILL READINGS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S, W/ SOME ISOLATED UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
MONDAY...THE DAYTIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE (20%-
40%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT (MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70) AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE WEST, AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CATEGORY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27 IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.
TUESDAY...WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES (20%-30%) FOR
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY. WE COULD HAVE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BLOWING
DUST THRESHOLDS ARE BEING MET PER GFS AT SPOTTY LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27 BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 2-2.5KM LAYER,
VISIBILITIES DONT LOOK TO BE REDUCED TOO MUCH.
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20% CHANCE OF SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT KMCK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, MARCH 28:
GOODLAND..........89F BACK IN 1963
HILL CITY.........90F BACK IN 1963
MCCOOK............86F BACK IN 1963
BURLINGTON........83F BACK IN 1962
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN
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