755
FXUS63 KGLD 281626
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE 60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UNDER AN
INCH.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.. BRINGING IMPACTFUL WEATHER
(IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER) TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FEW SOME ISOLATED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE RANGING MAINLY IN THE
50S, WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 60F. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
THE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BROAD AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST. THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
RIDGE WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE CO/KS/NE BORDER. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN SPOTS W/ GUSTS
20-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500
MB WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF GREAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING AREA-WIDE.
WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +22C TO +26C FROM THE
LATEST GFS/NAM, EXPECTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY ALONG
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RH READINGS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR
MOST. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH DOES MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR FAR EASTERN ZONES TO REMAIN IN THE
20S FOR RH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
RH WILL HIT CRITERIA, BUT WINDS WILL BE LACKING AS THE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS UP DURING THE DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE EAST,
SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE HAS
SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE(700MB AND
ABOVE) AND COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, MAINLY FOR
RED WILLOW COUNTY. SPC HAS THIS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THIS EVENING FOR A WIND(60 MPH)/HAIL(1 INCH) THREAT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES DUE TO THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. IF ANY STORMS FORM, WIND MAY MORE THAN LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREAT, AS DCAPE IS RANGING FROM 300-600 J/KG AND DOES
DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE SPC TREND THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS DO DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF EACH SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE ENTIRE CWA IS
SET TO SEE SOME QPF. INITIALLY 20-50% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GIVES WAY TO WIDE
RANGE FROM 30- 40% EAST TO 60-70% CHANCE WEST BASED ON CURRENT
SYSTEM TRACK. ON SUNDAY A BROAD 30-40% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS TO A 15-30% CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25. P-TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS
BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES, BUT THE EVENING HOURS WILL SEE
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BASED ON
TEMPERATURES/TIMING WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUM,
AIDED BY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 80S
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING 90F. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD
PRODUCE A FEW RECORD HIGHS. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
SATURDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGE WIDELY W/ UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOUTH OF I-70, MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
EXPECTED. WARMEST AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN
KANSAS. FOR SUNDAY, COOLER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. EAST OF THERE, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EXPECTED. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. AND FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MID 20S EXPECTED. ANY WIND CHILL READINGS
THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S, W/ SOME
ISOLATED UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
OVERVIEW: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
PROGRESSIVE, LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
COMPLEX TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE AND LESS-
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY MID-WEEK (TUE-WED).
MONDAY: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE DURING THE DAY.. AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REORIENTS/TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND, WARMEST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
TUESDAY: GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVE GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN CO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS ON TUESDAY. POTENTIAL WEATHER
HAZARDS/IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE
PRECISE EVOLUTION (TRACK-TIMING-INTENSITY) OF THE LEE CYCLONE.
AT THIS TIME, DRY CONDITIONS, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
STRONG WSW TO NW WINDS.. POSSIBLY SHIFTING FROM WSW TO NW IN
ASSOC/W A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFT-EVE.. APPEAR TO BE
THE 'MORE PROBABLE' SCENARIO FOR THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA. IF THIS IS THE CASE, DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER AND
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. 00Z 03/28
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY DIVERGE DURING A
PATTERN TRANSITION EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.. TO SUCH A DEGREE/EXTENT
THAT THEY ARE PHASE SHIFTED ~180 DEGREES BY WED. EXPECT
UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WEATHER.. IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW AVERAGE', IN
THIS CONTEXT, IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH / INHERENT TO INCREASED PATTERN
COMPLEXITY.. E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF WAVES,
MULTIBRANCHED JET / WAVE INTERACTIONS AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVE / DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE,
AMONG OTHERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS AT KGLD DUE TO MIXING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM AROUND THE KMCK TERMINAL FROM ROUGHLY 02-05Z BUT
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE WILL GO WITH THE PROB30. COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING NOT ONLY A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BUT STRATUS WITH IT AS WELL WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL WITH THE MOST
LIKELY FOR IFR AT KMCK DUE TO THE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
STRATUS BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, MARCH 28:
GOODLAND..........89F BACK IN 1963
HILL CITY.........90F BACK IN 1963
MCCOOK............86F BACK IN 1963
BURLINGTON........83F BACK IN 1962
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLIMATE...JN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page