198
FXUS63 KGLD 290414
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1014 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SOME INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30%
CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.. BRINGING IMPACTFUL WEATHER
(IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER) TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AM SEEING A
SUBTLE WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. DUE TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS BUT SOME VIRGA MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE DOES CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR A STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM FOR HITCHCOCK/RED WILLOW COUNTIES
THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITIONING OF A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OCCUR HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS AND IN THE 7P-11PM TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURRING IS AROUND 5%. TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL ADVECT SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO WEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LOW MUCAPE IS FORECAST
TO BE PRESENT SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WITH
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE LOW STRATUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO FORM
AND MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY, WILL SEE A COLD FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE
ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OFF OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE. ASSUMING THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT AS
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LANDSPOUTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS 200-400 J/KG OF 0-3KM CAPE IS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. THE ONLY
THING GOING AGAINST THE LANDSPOUT POTENTIAL IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM. NAMNEST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 SHEAR AND 400-500
MUCAPE. IN SUBTLE FORCING ENVIRONMENTS THE NAMNEST TYPICAL DOES DO
THE BEST OF THE CAMS AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MORE MOIST
BIAS TO HELP INITIATION SO THAT IS WHAT I'M TAILORING MY FORECAST
OFF OF; IT ALSO IS COINCIDING WITH WHAT THE RAP SHOWS IN REGARD TO
700-500MB MOISTURE AS WELL.
SATURDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EAST COLORADO AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TURN THE
RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX. RAP AND NAM BOTH
SHOW SOME MUCAPE REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH BRINGS SOME CONCERN
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS VIA SNOWBANDS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE AN OVERALL GOOD CONSENSUS OF THIS OCCURRING, BUT
THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR AT AS THE MEMBERS
ALL RANGE IN THE FINAL LOCATION. SHOULD THIS SNOW BAND OCCUR
THEN AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE, THE EXTENT OF THE
IMPACTS HOWEVER WOULD BE THE TRICKY PART DUE TO GROUND
TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE LOW 50S SO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ON ROADWAYS, SIDEWALKS ETC... WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH GUSTING 25-30 MPH WHICH
WOULD HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF LEADING TO SOME SPORADIC BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE ABERDEEN BLOWING SNOW MODEL, SO
HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST. A
BLIZZARD IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO
BE A WETTER SNOW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SO ANYONE THAT GOT A LITTLE
SPRING FEVER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WANT TO ENSURE ANY
PLANTS ARE PROTECTED FROM THIS HARD FREEZE.
INTO SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS
FORECAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASING 850MB JET DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY
OF AROUND 35-30 MPH. BEHIND THE GRADIENT, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IS SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS WELL. A SURFACE HIGH KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WELL. MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IT WILL COMPLETELY DEPEND ON
WHERE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGHS AND WHERE EXACTLY DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK SET UP AT. FOR TUESDAY, A GENERAL
CONSENSUS BETWEEN GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THAT A LOW IS
FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE WOULD BE ABLE TO ADVECT FURTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER IF IT ENDS UP SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH THEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE; SO CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES CURRENTLY
HAVE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS PERIOD DO LOOK TO BE FAIRLY VARIABLE AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASING
IN SPEED TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE TOWARDS 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH IFR LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AT KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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