384
FXUS63 KGLD 290826
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SOME INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30%
CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.. BRINGING IMPACTFUL WEATHER
(IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER) TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING FRONT/LOW THAT CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE IN THE 40S/50S NORTH OF THE FRONT,
AND A MIX OF 50S/60S SOUTH. WINDS ARE MIXED AS WELL W/ LOCALES
ACROSS THE N/NW SEEING A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW W/ GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ENSUES W/
GUSTS SIMILAR TO THOSE NORTH.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ALSO,
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP40 500/700MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING SLOWLY N/NE THROUGH THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A SLOW MOVING LOW/FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING LONG
TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THE FRONT TOOK ALONG TWO HOURS
TO PASS THROUGH GOODLAND, KS GOING FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO THE
CURRENT NORTHERLY W/ GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTED BY AN 850MB LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE. VAD
WIND PROFILES ON LOCAL RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET AROUND 40-45KTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE GRADIENT ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT IS TIGHT AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALL DAY, INVERTED-
V SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN MIXING TO OCCUR AND THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SEEING THIS.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW THIS CURRENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS. THE LATEST CAMS
(CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST ARE SHOWING THE BULK
OF PRECIP 20-40% TO FALL AS RAIN, BUT LATE IN THE DAY, A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO COLORADO.
GUIDANCE CARRIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE W/SW LATE
TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AREA-WIDE,
BRINGING IN SOME CAA(COLD AIR ADVECTION). THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED STORMS,
OTHERWISE MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. GOING INTO TONIGHT, (A 30-60%
CHANCE) THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THIS CHANGEOVER WILL ACCOMPANY 20-30 MPH
WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO. SNOW
ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 AND
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AREA-
WIDE BEFORE THINGS TAPER BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING FOR A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS BASED ON
CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS, BUT FROM 06Z-12Z MONDAY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ENDING BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA,
COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO RUSSELL SPRINGS, KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES IN
COLORADO CLOSEST TO THE SYSTEM TRACK.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAYTIME FOR THE
AREA, FOLLOWED BY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500/700MB
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST CHANCES IN NEBRASKA BASED ON SYSTEM TRACK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP WEST DURING THE DAY.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM MAINLY THE 50S TO
AROUND 60F NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE 60S
SOUTH. THE WIDE RANGE IS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. GOING INTO
SUNDAY, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED, GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
GIVING WAY TO 20S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
30S WITH SOME LOCALES AROUND 40F ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASING 850MB JET DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY
OF AROUND 35-30 MPH. BEHIND THE GRADIENT, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IS SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS WELL. A SURFACE HIGH KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WELL. MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IT WILL COMPLETELY DEPEND ON
WHERE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGHS AND WHERE EXACTLY DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK SET UP AT. FOR TUESDAY, A GENERAL
CONSENSUS BETWEEN GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THAT A LOW IS
FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE WOULD BE ABLE TO ADVECT FURTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER IF IT ENDS UP SETTING UP FURTHER SOUTH THEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD INCREASE; SO CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES CURRENTLY
HAVE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING MULTIPLE HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS PERIOD DO LOOK TO BE FAIRLY VARIABLE AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASING
IN SPEED TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE TOWARDS 12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH IFR LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KMCK
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AT KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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