819
FXUS63 KGLD 291446
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
846 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SOME INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30%
CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.. BRINGING IMPACTFUL
WEATHER (IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER) TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HAVE ADDED IN AN AREA OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING AS A 700 MB SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL 500MB LOW HAS LED TO SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
AROUND 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE PRESENT WHICH IS LEADING TO THE
LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING. I HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES AREA WIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED WELL THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES BRING SOME CONCERN TO
ME THAT THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE QUICKER SO AN
INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST PACKAGE AM SEEING SOME SIGNS OF MUCAPE BEING PRESENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS BRINGING SOME CONCERN FOR SOME SNOW BANDING
POTENTIAL AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO LET NEW DATA COME IN AND SEE
IF AMOUNTS DO NEED TO BE INCREASED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FRONT/LOW THAT CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE IN THE 40S/50S NORTH OF THE
FRONT, AND A MIX OF 50S/60S SOUTH. WINDS ARE MIXED AS WELL W/
LOCALES ACROSS THE N/NW SEEING A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW W/ GUSTS
UP TO 30-40 MPH AT TIMES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES W/ GUSTS SIMILAR TO THOSE NORTH.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALSO, BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP40 500/700MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING SLOWLY N/NE THROUGH THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A SLOW MOVING LOW/FRONT THAT IS
PROVIDING LONG TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THE FRONT
TOOK ALONG TWO HOURS TO PASS THROUGH GOODLAND, KS GOING FROM
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO THE CURRENT NORTHERLY W/ GUSTS INTO THE
25-35 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN 850MB LOW
STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE. VAD WIND PROFILES ON LOCAL
RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND
40-45KTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT IS TIGHT AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALL DAY, INVERTED- V
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN MIXING TO OCCUR AND THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SEEING THIS.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW THIS CURRENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS. THE LATEST
CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST ARE SHOWING
THE BULK OF PRECIP 20-40% TO FALL AS RAIN, BUT LATE IN THE DAY,
A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO
COLORADO.
GUIDANCE CARRIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE W/SW
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AREA-
WIDE, BRINGING IN SOME CAA(COLD AIR ADVECTION). THE REMNANTS OF
THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS, OTHERWISE MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. GOING INTO TONIGHT,
(A 30-60% CHANCE) THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THIS CHANGEOVER WILL
ACCOMPANY 20-30 MPH WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO. SNOW ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MAINLY
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 AND ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
AREA- WIDE BEFORE THINGS TAPER BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING FOR A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS, BUT FROM 06Z-12Z
MONDAY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ENDING BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA, COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS, KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES IN COLORADO CLOSEST TO THE
SYSTEM TRACK.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAYTIME FOR
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500/700MB
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST CHANCES IN NEBRASKA BASED ON SYSTEM TRACK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP WEST DURING THE DAY.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM MAINLY THE 50S TO
AROUND 60F NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
60S SOUTH. THE WIDE RANGE IS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED, GIVING WAY TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, GIVING WAY TO 20S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY 30S WITH SOME LOCALES AROUND 40F ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
OVERVIEW: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
PROGRESSIVE, LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
COMPLEX TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE AND LESS-
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY: 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SW WINDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LEE CYCLONE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.. AND THAT
THE OVERALL WARMEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE APT TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF GOODLAND. POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS/IMPACTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION (TRACK-
TIMING-INTENSITY) OF THE LEE CYCLONE. THE 00Z 03/29 GFS, FOR
EXAMPLE, INDICATES A WEAKER /ILL-DEFINED/ CYCLONE WITH A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OVER SOUTHWEST KS.. A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE WARM
SECTOR (AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS) WOULD LARGELY BE
RELEGATED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND, INDICATES A SLOWER, BETTER-DEFINED CYCLONE WITH A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK (IN VICINITY OF I-70 VS. SOUTHWEST KS).. A
SCENARIO IN WHICH BOTH THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE
WARM SECTOR WOULD MORE FAVORABLY OVERLAP THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA. NEITHER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS, NOR
CLIMATOLOGY, WOULD SUGGEST AN APPRECIABLE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION /SEVERE WX/ IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: RECENT 00Z 03/29 OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE BY WED, ALBEIT TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN PRIOR RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.. ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ONE FORM OR
ANOTHER.. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FOR KGLD, A MIX OF VFR/MVFR(BKN015-020) CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
SUNDAY, THEN IFR AROUND OVC008. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-
10Z SUNDAY WITH NO VISIBILITY REDUCTION. DEPENDING ON HOW
TEMPERATURES DROP, THE LIGHT RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AT THIS TIME. WINDS, NORTHERLY 15-25KTS.
FOR KMCK, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND BKN010-020. SOME VFR POSSIBLE
FROM 22Z SAT-01Z SUN. VCSH FROM 15Z-19Z. WINDS, NORTHEAST 15-25KTS
THROUGH 19Z, THEN NORTH AROUND 15-30KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JN
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