702
FXUS63 KGLD 291916
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS SNOWFALL. SOME INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30%
CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS THAT COULD TURN IT INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HAVE ADDED IN AN AREA OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING AS A 700 MB SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL 500MB LOW HAS LED TO SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
AROUND 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE PRESENT WHICH IS LEADING TO THE
LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING. I HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES AREA WIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED WELL THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DOES BRING SOME CONCERN TO
ME THAT THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE QUICKER SO AN
INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST PACKAGE AM SEEING SOME SIGNS OF MUCAPE BEING PRESENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH IS BRINGING SOME CONCERN FOR SOME SNOW BANDING
POTENTIAL AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO LET NEW DATA COME IN AND SEE
IF AMOUNTS DO NEED TO BE INCREASED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING FRONT/LOW THAT CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT ARE IN THE 40S/50S NORTH OF THE
FRONT, AND A MIX OF 50S/60S SOUTH. WINDS ARE MIXED AS WELL W/
LOCALES ACROSS THE N/NW SEEING A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW W/ GUSTS
UP TO 30-40 MPH AT TIMES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES W/ GUSTS SIMILAR TO THOSE NORTH.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALSO, BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP40 500/700MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING SLOWLY N/NE THROUGH THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A SLOW MOVING LOW/FRONT THAT IS
PROVIDING LONG TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THE FRONT
TOOK ALONG TWO HOURS TO PASS THROUGH GOODLAND, KS GOING FROM
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO THE CURRENT NORTHERLY W/ GUSTS INTO THE
25-35 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN 850MB LOW
STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE. VAD WIND PROFILES ON LOCAL
RADAR HAVE BEEN SHOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND
40-45KTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT IS TIGHT AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALL DAY, INVERTED- V
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN MIXING TO OCCUR AND THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SEEING THIS.
THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW THIS CURRENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS. THE LATEST
CAMS (CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST ARE SHOWING
THE BULK OF PRECIP 20-40% TO FALL AS RAIN, BUT LATE IN THE DAY,
A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 INTO
COLORADO.
GUIDANCE CARRIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE W/SW
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AREA-
WIDE, BRINGING IN SOME CAA(COLD AIR ADVECTION). THE REMNANTS OF
THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS, OTHERWISE MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED. GOING INTO TONIGHT,
(A 30-60% CHANCE) THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THIS CHANGEOVER WILL
ACCOMPANY 20-30 MPH WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IN COLORADO. SNOW ACCUM LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MAINLY
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 AND ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS
AREA- WIDE BEFORE THINGS TAPER BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING FOR A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS, BUT FROM 06Z-12Z
MONDAY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ENDING BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA, COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS, KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES IN COLORADO CLOSEST TO THE
SYSTEM TRACK.
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAYTIME FOR
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500/700MB
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST CHANCES IN NEBRASKA BASED ON SYSTEM TRACK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP WEST DURING THE DAY.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM MAINLY THE 50S TO
AROUND 60F NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
60S SOUTH. THE WIDE RANGE IS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED, GIVING WAY TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, GIVING WAY TO 20S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY 30S WITH SOME LOCALES AROUND 40F ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. OUT AHEAD
OF IT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEEPEN.
HOW THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW DEEP IT GETS VARIES BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, MOST SOLUTIONS POINT TO
A SCENARIO WHERE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP TO AROUND 10-15% AS
THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH AND THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL THREAT OF THE SYSTEM.
SOME OF THE OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE HIGH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH, BLOWING DUST, SNOW, AND SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY, MOST OF
THESE OTHER HAZARDS HAVE A 10% OR LESS CHANCE DUE TO VARYING
FACTORS. MOST SCENARIOS BRING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WINDS A BIT LOWER AND INHIBIT
THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER GUSTS AND FOR BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM IN CASES WHERE THE DRY SLOT DOESN'T MOVE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THE
FASTER PROGRESSION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE TOO LACKING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EACH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE SHOWN IN SOME SOLUTIONS
OF THE ENSEMBLES, BUT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE MOST
CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MEMBERS.
AFTER TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT COULD TURN INTO
MORE OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WOULD HELP A COOLER AIR MASS STAY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR, TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WOULD ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WOULD BE UNLIKELY WITH THESE WAVES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING
MORE NOTEWORTHY OR IMPACTFUL LOOKS TO BE WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH CANADA AND LIFTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW IF THIS HAPPENS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO
BE MORE ONBOARD WITH SOLUTION, ENSEMBLES LOOK TO FAVOR A SCENARIO
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THE SAME, OR A REINFORCING COLD
AIR MASS MOVES IN. GIVEN THE SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS, I STAYED CLOSER TO
AVERAGE WITH CONDITIONS FOR NOW. BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK TO SEE IF WE HAVE THE CHANCE FOR A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
EACH TERMINAL. SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR THE KMCK TERMINAL TO START THE PERIOD BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THIS TIME SHOULD ANYTHING IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. FOR KGLD SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE SHOULD THEY FORM. RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVING TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SOME HEAVIER AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR KGLD FROM THE 08-11Z HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE IF THE TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SO WILL GO
WITH A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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