572
FXUS63 KGLD 291934
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30% CHANCE) LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN/SNOW FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS THAT COULD TURN IT INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MORNING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES
IN. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO
CURRENTLY AND WILL SERVE AS THE NEXT SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE
AREA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OFF OF THE FRONT
RANGE AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AS RAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES FROM ALL RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
THEN FINALLY TO ALL SNOW AS IT MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MUCAPE AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED BANDS COULD POTENTIAL SEE 3-4 INCHES.
THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST LIES IN HOW MUCH THE SNOW WILL
BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN SOIL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S CURRENTLY; IT MAY TAKE A HEAVY CONSISTENT SNOW FOR
THIS OCCUR. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS IF
SNOWFALL RATES CAN EXCEED 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AS BASED ON THE
ABERDEEN BLOWING SNOW MODEL THAT THE CURRENT FORECASTED
TEMPERATURE AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WOULD STILL GIVE A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES FALL AROUND ONE HALF MILE
AS THE SNOW FALLS. THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN SOME
INDICATIONS OF A ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP FROM ROUGHLY
THE COLBY AREA BACK THROUGH CHEYENNE WELLS. THIS BAND SEEMS TO
BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY WITH IT WHICH MAKE ME A LITTLE LEERY. WILL BRIEF
THE NEXT SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF A TREND WITH IT
CONTINUES OR NOT. OVERALL, DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
BLOWING SNOW AND THE CONCERNS FOR ACTUAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
GIVEN THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL FOREGO ANY WINTER HEADLINES
FOR THIS SHIFT, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY AREAS WHERE IF THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE.
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY COME TO AN END WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF
TODAY'S COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY TO LOCALES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AM
ALSO SEEING SOME SIGNALS OF POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL WHICH DOES BRING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FOG POTENTIAL SO WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING FOG INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS, PERHAPS
MIXING WITH MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME OF THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BUT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITH
THIS ROUND DOES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
SO IF THE SPRING FEVER FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS GOTTEN TO
ANYONE BE SURE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO COVER ANY
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND ASSURE OUTDOOR PLUMBING IS COVERED.
SHOULD THE FOG DEVELOP OR RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER MOVE IN QUICKER THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER.
MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
AROUND THE KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
850MB WIND FIELD RESULTING IN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS LOW LEADING TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SO
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THAT TREND DOES
CONTINUE. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. OUT AHEAD
OF IT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEEPEN.
HOW THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW DEEP IT GETS VARIES BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, MOST SOLUTIONS POINT TO
A SCENARIO WHERE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP TO AROUND 10-15% AS
THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH AND THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL THREAT OF THE SYSTEM.
SOME OF THE OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE HIGH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH, BLOWING DUST, SNOW, AND SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY, MOST OF
THESE OTHER HAZARDS HAVE A 10% OR LESS CHANCE DUE TO VARYING
FACTORS. MOST SCENARIOS BRING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WINDS A BIT LOWER AND INHIBIT
THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER GUSTS AND FOR BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM IN CASES WHERE THE DRY SLOT DOESN'T MOVE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THE
FASTER PROGRESSION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE TOO LACKING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EACH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE SHOWN IN SOME SOLUTIONS
OF THE ENSEMBLES, BUT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE MOST
CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MEMBERS.
AFTER TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT COULD TURN INTO
MORE OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WOULD HELP A COOLER AIR MASS STAY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR, TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WOULD ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WOULD BE UNLIKELY WITH THESE WAVES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING
MORE NOTEWORTHY OR IMPACTFUL LOOKS TO BE WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH CANADA AND LIFTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW IF THIS HAPPENS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO
BE MORE ONBOARD WITH SOLUTION, ENSEMBLES LOOK TO FAVOR A SCENARIO
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THE SAME, OR A REINFORCING COLD
AIR MASS MOVES IN. GIVEN THE SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS, I STAYED CLOSER TO
AVERAGE WITH CONDITIONS FOR NOW. BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK TO SEE IF WE HAVE THE CHANCE FOR A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
EACH TERMINAL. SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR THE KMCK TERMINAL TO START THE PERIOD BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THIS TIME SHOULD ANYTHING IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. FOR KGLD SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE SHOULD THEY FORM. RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVING TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SOME HEAVIER AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR KGLD FROM THE 08-11Z HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE IF THE TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SO WILL GO
WITH A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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