822
FXUS63 KGLD 300854
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30% CHANCE) INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
CLOSER TO THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS THAT COULD TURN IT INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 AM MT
ARE RANGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW 32F, AND WINDS NORTHERLY W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SOME AT TIMES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED FIRE WX CONCERNS
REMAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN KANSAS ON TUESDAY.
THE LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS AN OPEN WAVE
AT 500MB, A CLOSED LOW AT 700MB TO THE NORTHEAST W/ A RIDGE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AT 850MB. THE RIDGE AT 850MB LINES UP WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE AS WELL. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB AND IS EVIDENT ON THE
CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE GOODLAND RADAR. THIS GIVES WAY TO
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHERE THE 500MB WAVE SITS.
THE RIDGE IN PLACE IS KEEPING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUD OVER THE CWA, W/
RADAR SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS IN
COLORADO TO SEE SNOW OCCUR, WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRECIP IN KS/NE
BEING MAINLY RAIN OR A BRIEF MIX AS TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 32F.
AREA RADAR IS SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF PRECIP COMING OVER THE
COLORADO BORDER, SO EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AS FORECAST AND
WILL CARRY INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY(20-40%).
THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE
LATEST GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SO
EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(20-40%) TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING MONDAY, WITH THE CHANCES
OCCURRING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
DURING THE MORNING THAT COULD GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL(15-20%).
AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP WILL FOCUS ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT
SETS UP AFTER COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS THIS
MEANDERING IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND W/SW FLOW
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW/FRONT MOVES EAST. HOURLY GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
GUST POTENTIAL EACH DAY...25-35 MPH(MON-MON NIGHT) AND 25-40
MPH(TUESDAY BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING).
THE WIND REGIME FOR TUESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DUE
TO THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECT OF THE W/SW FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO,
LOCAL DUST RESEARCH IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
EXPECTED PRECIP DURING THE DAY, BUT GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE, SO HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST AT
THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. GOING INTO MONDAY, UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. AND FOR TUESDAY, A
WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY 60S IN YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES IN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE, 70S. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY, KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE,
KANSAS WHERE SOME LOCALES COULD APPROACH THE 80F MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT, AND MAINLY
THE 30S THEREAFTER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SPOTS AROUND 40F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. OUT AHEAD
OF IT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA AND DEEPEN.
HOW THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW DEEP IT GETS VARIES BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, MOST SOLUTIONS POINT TO
A SCENARIO WHERE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP TO AROUND 10-15% AS
THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH AND THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL THREAT OF THE SYSTEM.
SOME OF THE OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE HIGH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60
MPH, BLOWING DUST, SNOW, AND SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY, MOST OF
THESE OTHER HAZARDS HAVE A 10% OR LESS CHANCE DUE TO VARYING
FACTORS. MOST SCENARIOS BRING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WINDS A BIT LOWER AND INHIBIT
THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER GUSTS AND FOR BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM IN CASES WHERE THE DRY SLOT DOESN'T MOVE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS THE
FASTER PROGRESSION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, SIMILAR TO RECENT SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE TOO LACKING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EACH OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE SHOWN IN SOME SOLUTIONS
OF THE ENSEMBLES, BUT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THE MOST
CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MEMBERS.
AFTER TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT COULD TURN INTO
MORE OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WOULD HELP A COOLER AIR MASS STAY
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR, TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WOULD ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SOME PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WOULD BE UNLIKELY WITH THESE WAVES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING
MORE NOTEWORTHY OR IMPACTFUL LOOKS TO BE WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH CANADA AND LIFTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW IF THIS HAPPENS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO
BE MORE ONBOARD WITH SOLUTION, ENSEMBLES LOOK TO FAVOR A SCENARIO
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THE SAME, OR A REINFORCING COLD
AIR MASS MOVES IN. GIVEN THE SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS, I STAYED CLOSER TO
AVERAGE WITH CONDITIONS FOR NOW. BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK TO SEE IF WE HAVE THE CHANCE FOR A BETTER
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF 1 TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THAT TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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