707
FXUS63 KGLD 301040
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
440 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT BLOWING SNOW (30% CHANCE) INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
CLOSER TO THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS THAT COULD TURN IT INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF
200 AM MT ARE RANGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW 32F, AND WINDS
NORTHERLY W/ GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SOME AT TIMES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED FIRE WX
CONCERNS REMAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY.
THE LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS AN OPEN
WAVE AT 500MB, A CLOSED LOW AT 700MB TO THE NORTHEAST W/ A
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AT 850MB. THE RIDGE AT 850MB
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH A RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WELL. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB
AND IS EVIDENT ON THE CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE
GOODLAND RADAR. THIS GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE THE 500MB WAVE SITS.
THE RIDGE IN PLACE IS KEEPING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUD OVER THE CWA,
W/ RADAR SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS IN
COLORADO TO SEE SNOW OCCUR, WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRECIP IN
KS/NE BEING MAINLY RAIN OR A BRIEF MIX AS TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 32F. AREA RADAR IS SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF PRECIP COMING
OVER THE COLORADO BORDER, SO EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AS
FORECAST AND WILL CARRY INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY(20-40%).
THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE
LATEST GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SO
EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(20-40%) TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING MONDAY, WITH THE CHANCES
OCCURRING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DURING THE MORNING THAT COULD GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER
ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL(15-20%).
AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP WILL FOCUS ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW/FRONT SETS UP AFTER COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS THIS MEANDERING IN THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND W/SW
FLOW ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW/FRONT MOVES EAST. HOURLY GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING GUST POTENTIAL EACH DAY...25-35 MPH(MON-MON NIGHT) AND
25-40 MPH(TUESDAY BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING).
THE WIND REGIME FOR TUESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECT OF THE W/SW FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, LOCAL DUST RESEARCH IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR EXPECTED PRECIP DURING THE DAY, BUT
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE, SO HAVE PUT IN A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. GOING INTO MONDAY, UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. AND
FOR TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY 60S IN YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE, 70S. THE WARMEST
SPOTS WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY, KANSAS
SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS WHERE SOME LOCALES COULD APPROACH
THE 80F MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT, AND
MAINLY THE 30S THEREAFTER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS AROUND 40F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
OVERVIEW: A TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.. CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP, BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. WILL OCCUR BY MID-WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS, RECENT (00Z 03/30) OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE 'BROAD STROKES'.. INDICATING DEEP TROUGHING / CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY.
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS/PERIODS
THAT STAND OUT IN TERMS OF 'IMPACTFUL WEATHER POTENTIAL'.. (1)
ON TUE-WED AND (2) ON FRI-SAT. AT THIS RANGE, FORECAST SPECIFICS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MURKY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE LARGER/BROADER SYNOPTIC
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. A PATTERN IN WHICH
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SAID WAVES MAY FOSTER A WIDE
VARIETY OF OUTCOMES WITH REGARD TO CYCLONE EVOLUTION (TRACK/
INTENSITY).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FOR KGLD, MAINLY A VFR/MVFR MIX IN CEILINGS BKN015-030. SOME
IFR AROUND OVC008 POSSIBLE FROM 12Z-15Z. 2-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. WINDS, NORTH 10-20KTS THROUGH 15Z, THEN
DROPPING TO AROUND 10KTS. BY 22Z, SHIFTING NORTHEAST, THEN
SOUTHEAST FROM 08Z MONDAY ONWARD.
FOR KMCK, THERE WILL BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD OVC015-025. 3-6SM IN LIGHT SNOW FROM 12Z-16Z
THIS MORNING. WINDS, NORTHERLY 10-15KTS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
GUSTS TO 25KTS FROM 18Z-20Z. FROM 03Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM 07Z ONWARD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JN
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