014
FXUS63 KGLD 301855
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED FIRE DANGER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS THAT COULD TURN IT INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT.
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF
200 AM MT ARE RANGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE/BELOW 32F, AND WINDS
NORTHERLY W/ GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR SOME AT TIMES.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED FIRE WX
CONCERNS REMAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY.
THE LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS AN OPEN
WAVE AT 500MB, A CLOSED LOW AT 700MB TO THE NORTHEAST W/ A
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AT 850MB. THE RIDGE AT 850MB
LINES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH A RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WELL. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB
AND IS EVIDENT ON THE CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE
GOODLAND RADAR. THIS GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE THE 500MB WAVE SITS.
THE RIDGE IN PLACE IS KEEPING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUD OVER THE CWA,
W/ RADAR SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IS ALLOWING FOR AREAS IN
COLORADO TO SEE SNOW OCCUR, WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRECIP IN
KS/NE BEING MAINLY RAIN OR A BRIEF MIX AS TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 32F. AREA RADAR IS SHOWING ANOTHER LINE OF PRECIP COMING
OVER THE COLORADO BORDER, SO EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AS
FORECAST AND WILL CARRY INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY(20-40%).
THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE
LATEST GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SO
EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(20-40%) TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING MONDAY, WITH THE CHANCES
OCCURRING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DURING THE MORNING THAT COULD GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER
ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL(15-20%).
AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP WILL FOCUS ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW/FRONT SETS UP AFTER COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS THIS MEANDERING IN THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND W/SW
FLOW ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW/FRONT MOVES EAST. HOURLY GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING GUST POTENTIAL EACH DAY...25-35 MPH(MON-MON NIGHT) AND
25-40 MPH(TUESDAY BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING).
THE WIND REGIME FOR TUESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECT OF THE W/SW FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO, LOCAL DUST RESEARCH IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER FOR EXPECTED PRECIP DURING THE DAY, BUT
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE, SO HAVE PUT IN A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. GOING INTO MONDAY, UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. AND
FOR TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY 60S IN YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO. ELSEWHERE, 70S. THE WARMEST
SPOTS WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY, KANSAS
SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS WHERE SOME LOCALES COULD APPROACH
THE 80F MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT, AND
MAINLY THE 30S THEREAFTER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS AROUND 40F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WEDNESDAY...AS TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY, WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND
RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE
CHANCES AT 20% TO 30%. WE'LL ALSO EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY FROM FLAGLER TO SHARON SPRINGS AS THERE IS A
HINT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A
RATHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT 500MB WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY PER GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS WITH GOOD 850-500MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT NBM POPS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. OVERNIGHT, DONT SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT NBM SHOWING 20% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS SO WE'LL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30% TO
50% RANGE DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND 40%-60% OVERNIGHT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING MOVES GENERALLY EAST DURING THE
PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30% TO 50% RANGE DURING THE DAY
DECREASE A BIT FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 20% TO 40% RANGE OVERNIGHT.
WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME MORNING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S
TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20% CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE HILL CITY, NORTON, MCCOOK AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RATHER LOW GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
500MB LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR EACH
TERMINAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO EACH
TERMINAL. HAVE ALSO STARTED NOTICING A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WELL BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN IT ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...TRIGG
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