536
FXUS63 KGLD 310809
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
209 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES (30-40%) FAVORING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LITTLE TO
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. A 20% CHANCE OF FOG BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO.
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM THUS FAR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN, DO THINK ENOUGH WARMING WILL ENSUE FOR THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO WORK OUT AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SUBTLE 700MB WAVE MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW.
INITIALLY THE FAVORED LOCATION IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40
BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST
MOVES IN LEADING TO A SMALLER THREAT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE MEAGER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND THE
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THESE WAVES. AM ALSO NOTICING AN
INCREASING TREND IN POTENTIAL FOG BEHIND THESE WAVES AS WELL
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO
HAVE ADDED IN THE PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW. IF THE
PRECIPITATION DOESN'T FORM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME DENSE FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FOG
AT THIS TIME IS FAVORED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONING DAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SURFACE HIGH
FROM TODAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A LIGHTNING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WINDS GUST AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO THE EAST TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AT THE NOSE OF AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SOME ROGUE LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY BE ABLE TO BE REALIZED. WINDS DURING THE NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
TUESDAY, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MULTI HAZARD DAY. THE
SURFACE LOW FROM MONDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTS AHEAD OF IT AND THE
DRY SLOT OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE FIRST POTENTIAL HAZARD AND THE ONE WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE
IS FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
LOGAN, WALLACE, CHEYENNE (CO), GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.
THESE COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO BE BEHIND THE DRYLINE ALLOWING RH
VALUES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS. AN INCREASING WIND FIELD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO 40-55 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE WATCH COUNTIES RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. IF THE LOW CAN SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHICH A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW THEN THE FIRE HIGHLIGHTS MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE THE I-70
COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME MY CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS THAN
50%. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST A COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH A RESULTING WIND
SHIFT FURTHER ADDING TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE 2ND POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE GUSTY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PRESENT A SOURCE
REGION OF BLOWING DUST FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THE VERY LEAST
WILL LEAD TO HAZY SKIES. THE GFS WIND FIELD REMAINS THE
STRONGEST WHERE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-65 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS FAR NORTH AS I-70. I DID CONTEMPLATE A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT
WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY BEING THE OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
FIELD AND CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES OF THE POSITIONING OF THE
LOW, CONFIDENCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, IF OTHER GUIDANCE CAN START GETTING ON THE SAME PAGE
THEN ONE MAY BE NEEDED. VERY FAVORABLE 0-2KM LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE WINDS. THE
NASASPORT 0-10CM SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS GREELEY, WICHITA AND DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 20 RH
RANGES; THE RECENT RAIN/SNOW HAS IMPROVED AMOUNTS IN CHEYENNE CO
BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING TREND DO
THINK THIS WILL RE DRY OUT SOME. 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
HIGH WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT MOST OF THE DUST WILL JUST GET
FILTERED OUT THE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IT GOES LEADING TO MORE OF A
HAZE; HOWEVER WITH THE DRYNESS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
TO OPEN FIELDS AND OTHER DUST SOURCE REGIONS. ALONG THE NORTH TO
SOUTH MOVING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON SOME DUST SOURCE REGIONS AROUND THE LOGAN/MORGAN COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHERE THE SOIL MOISTURE ACCORDING TO NASASPORT
CURRENTLY IS IN THE 20S AS WELL. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISE
AROUND 8-9MB OVER 3 HOURS AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE MAY LEAD TO
SOME WALL OF DUST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 5
PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND FIELD MAY BE WEAKER BEHIND THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY LEADING TO "WEAKER" WINDS THAN WHAT IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NEXT HAZARD IS SEVERE WEATHER AND HAS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
ADVECT AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HELP SHARPEN THE DRYLINE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE SURGE? THE
ECMWF CURRENTLY HAS THE DRYLINE THE FURTHEST WEST BACK TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT FURTHER EASTER
TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS (WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS) AND
THE NAM IS IN BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS ACROSS MAINLY NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE NAM IS TYPICALLY MY GO TO 48+ HOURS OUT FOR
POTENTIAL DRYLINE SHIFTS SO WITH IT BEING FURTHER EAST DOES
DECREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE CWA;
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF IT DOES SHIFT BACK WEST SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS
DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL
BASED ON THE EBWD AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9 C.KM AND 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.IF STORMS DO FORM IN THE CWA THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE IF THEIR RESIDENCE TIME IN THE FORECAST AREA
CAN BE REALIZED FOR THESE HAZARDS TO PRESENT THEMSELVES.
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE IN WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
OVERVIEW: A TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.. CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP, BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. WILL OCCUR BY MID-WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WED-SUN: RECENT (00Z 03/31) OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE 'BROAD
STROKES'.. INDICATING DEEP TROUGHING / CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS FROM MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ACTIVE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY. IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THERE IS ONE SYSTEM/PERIOD, IN PARTICULAR, THAT STANDS
OUT IN TERMS OF 'IMPACTFUL WEATHER POTENTIAL'.. AND THAT'S FRI-
SAT (APRIL 04-05). AT THIS RANGE, FORECAST SPECIFICS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MURKY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
BE PRESENT WITHIN THE LARGER/BROADER SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. A PATTERN IN WHICH COMPLEX INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN SAID WAVES WILL FOSTER A WIDE VARIETY OF OUTCOMES WITH
REGARD TO CYCLONE EVOLUTION (TRACK/INTENSITY).. AS EVIDENCED BY
A SIMPLE COMPARISON BETWEEN 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER A FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.
AT KMCK...MVFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IF THEY DEVELOP MAY RESULT
IN SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS
IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page