247
FXUS63 KGLD 310940
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
340 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES (30%)
FAVORING NORTH OF HILL CITY, KS TO JOES, CO
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ISSUED FOR VARIOUS COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.
THIS MORNING, A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN SUSTAINED BY A FAIRLY SHARP
BOUNDARY OF THETA-E BEING AGITATED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE
MOISTURE SUSTAINING THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP BY 15Z. ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SHOWERS, MAINLY IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS EASTERLY, UPSLOPE WINDS
HELP SUSTAIN IT. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS ONLY ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF FORMING. THE
STRATUS DECK, HOWEVER, LOOKS TO LINGER INTO INTO THE MIDDAY. THIS
WILL STUNT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, BUT
THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S, WHERE THE STRATUS
WILL CLEAR EARLIER.
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE NEXT LOW STARTS TO
IMPACT THE CWA, WE CAN EXPECT MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSFER ACROSS THE
CWA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. BETWEEN A MILD THETA-E BOUNDARY AND THE
TURBULENT LLJ MOVING THIS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE, WE COULD SEE SOME
MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY, KS TO
YUMA, CO. BY SUNRISE, MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO MIX
IN, BUT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE.
TUESDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA,
AND MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A NOTABLE MODEL IS THE 3Z RUN OF
THE RAP, SHOWING THE LOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, IN NEBRASKA.
THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE FORCING OUT OF OUR AREA AND WE WOULD HAVE
A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER DAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
RETURNING TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE, THE 850 MB LLJ WILL TRANSPORT
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND AS
THE LOW'S COLD FRONT IMPACTS THIS MOISTURE, STORMS WILL FIRE,
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE'S POSITION IS STILL IN
QUESTION, BUT IT LOOKS TO SET UP ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA.
IN TYPICAL NAM FASHION, IT SHOWS THE DRYLINE BEING FARTHER WEST THAN
MOST OTHER MODELS, BUT THERE IS NOT CURRENTLY A STRONG REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT WESTWARD TREND. WHEREVER THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE
MEET TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. WITH
THESE STORMS, WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND 60
MPH WINDS.
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LINE OF STORMS, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH OTHER
HAZARDS. AS LONG AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPEED UP THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY IN THE WARM, DRY SECTOR OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING WARM, DRY
AIR INTO THE CWA, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO DROP IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. WE
ARE LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 40, WITH RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS TO BE MET IN
LOGAN, WICHITA, AND GREELEY COUNTIES. WALLACE AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES
REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL AROUND 50% IF THEY WILL
REACH THE 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
ALONG WITH THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST IN A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA. THE BOUNDARIES OF THIS
AREA ARE STILL IN FLUX, BASED ON THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE,
BASICALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF EACH RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE, LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF JOES, CO TO
OAKLEY, KS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO LOFT DUST. THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA, THE STRONGER
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE, LIKELY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 MPH,
ALTHOUGH A ROUGH GUST OR TWO OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA SUPPORTING PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR, MEANING BLOWING DUST
BECOMES MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
IN THE AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA, THE CENTRAL CWA COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS
FIRE AROUND 18-21Z. THESE STORMS DO NOT POSE A MAJOR SEVERE STORM
RISK, BUT COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING, SPARKING WILDFIRES. WE
EXPECTED ANY OF THE STORMS THAT LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE
EASTERN CWA WILL EXPLODE WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHEAR.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE NIGHT, LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A ~30% CHANCE
WE'LL HAVE TRAILING SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
P-TYPE - PRECIPITATION TYPE
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
OVERVIEW: A TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.. CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP, BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. WILL OCCUR BY MID-WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WED-SUN: RECENT (00Z 03/31) OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE 'BROAD
STROKES'.. INDICATING DEEP TROUGHING / CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS FROM MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ACTIVE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY. IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THERE IS ONE SYSTEM/PERIOD, IN PARTICULAR, THAT STANDS
OUT IN TERMS OF 'IMPACTFUL WEATHER POTENTIAL'.. AND THAT'S FRI-
SAT (APRIL 04-05). AT THIS RANGE, FORECAST SPECIFICS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MURKY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
BE PRESENT WITHIN THE LARGER/BROADER SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. A PATTERN IN WHICH COMPLEX INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN SAID WAVES WILL FOSTER A WIDE VARIETY OF OUTCOMES WITH
REGARD TO CYCLONE EVOLUTION (TRACK/INTENSITY).. AS EVIDENCED BY
A SIMPLE COMPARISON BETWEEN 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER A FEW HOURS, BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.
AT KMCK...MVFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IF THEY DEVELOP MAY RESULT
IN SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS
IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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