573
FXUS63 KGLD 311940
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ISSUED FOR VARIOUS COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW) AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRATUS SLOWLY DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE,
GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 27. A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT A
20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S TO AROUND 40 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO, LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA WHILE REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST.
BEHIND THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
LOCALLY DEVELOPED BLOWING DUST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME
BLOWING DUST FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER TO OBERLIN AND NORTON. THIS
AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, PATCHY TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST LOOK REASONABLE. WITH 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES
REMAINING VERY STEEP, THE DUST PLUMES WILL NOT BE CONFINED TO THE
SURFACE, ALLOWING DUST TO BE EVACUATED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE,
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR (WIDTH OF ABOUT A COUNTY) OF FAVORABLE 0.5-
1KM WIND SPEEDS FORECAST BY THE PREFERRED GFS/GEM MODELS, THAT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES IN PRODUCING SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES. OPEN FIELDS MAY BE A SOURCE FOR LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO. THIS EVENT IS BROADLY SIMILAR (AT LEAST AT 500MB) TO AN
EVENT ON MARCH 6, 2017 WHERE MOST OF THE FORECAST HAD VISIBILITIES
IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
RANGE. REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, CANT RULE OUT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THE DRYLINE MAY BE EAST OF THE AREA,
REMOVING THEM FROM THE THREAT. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE
REFINING THE DETAILS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, THERE IS A 20%-305
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW, MAINLY FROM KIT CARSON TO GOODLAND AND OBERLIN
NORTH.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY, WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHT WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER TO
BENKELMAN ALTHOUGH 850-500MB MOISTURE FROM THE GFS/NAM MODELS
WOULDNT SUPPORT THE 20% CHANCES. WE'LL ALSO EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BURLINGTON TO WALLACE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT 500MB WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY PER GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS WITH GOOD 850-
500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT NBM POPS NOW IN THE 50%-70% RANGE
FOR RAIN SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. OVERNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH IN THE 30%-60% RANGE
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BELOW 700MB. PRECIPITATION
TYPES REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH SNOW TO THE
WEST. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
50. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 40%-60%
RANGE DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WITH 30% TO 50% RANGE
DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND 50%-70% RANGE OVERNIGHT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWER FORECAST IS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING MOVES GENERALLY EAST DURING THE
PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30% TO 50% RANGE DURING THE DAY
(RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS) DECREASE A BIT FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE 20% TO 30% RANGE OVERNIGHT (SNOW SHOWERS). HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...CONTINUED DRY UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KGLD...SUB VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS. AFTER 22Z, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 30KTS OR SO, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 30KTS
AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 10Z-14Z TIMEFRAME.
KMCK...SUB VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 19Z
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10KTS. FROM 20Z-11Z, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS.
FROM 12Z-16Z, SUB VFR CIGS IN STRATUS ARE LIKELY. AFTER 17Z, VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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