637
FXUS63 KGLD 010932
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
332 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER, BLOWING DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW) AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED.
TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA,
AND WE EXPECT THE CENTER OF THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS MORNING, THE 850 MB LLJ HAS BEEN
TRANSPORTING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THIS CONVEYOR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THE LLJ HAS BEEN OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT, BUT AS THE DAY GOES ON AND THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK
UP. WE EXPECT TO GENERALLY SEE GUSTS TOP OUT AROUND 35-45 KTS, BUT A
COUPLE 50-55 KTS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HAZARDS. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL
BE BLOWING DUST. IN THE MIDDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN,
LOCATIONS NEAR DUST SOURCE REGIONS (OPEN FIELDS) MAY (40-50%) SEE
VISIBILITY REDUCE TO AROUND 0.5-1 SM. AS FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING
DUST, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE
7 C/KM, MEANING THERE IS NO CAP TO KEEP THE DUST NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HAZY SKIES AND WORSENED AIR QUALITY, BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. BLOWING DUST WILL
GENERALLY BE WORSE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA, WHERE WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
AS MENTIONED, WHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP, DRY AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN AND REPLACE THE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL DROP RH VALUES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA, TO THE POINT WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
EXPANDED DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
AROUND 18Z AND PROCEED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT RH VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 FROM
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15% FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR. THERE IS A CHANCE
(~20-30%) OF SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND KS 25
AROUND I-70 DUE TO THE COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD SPARK SOME FIRES.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS AS THEY DECAY.
MORE ON THESE STORMS IN A MINUTE.
AS THIS DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEETS THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
DURING THE DAY, A DRYLINE WILL FORM. THE DRYLINE'S POSITION IS STILL
SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION, BUT IT LOOKS TO SET UP ON THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. WHEREVER THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE MEET (TRIPLE
POINT) TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OR
FORM. WITH THESE STORMS, WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT HAIL UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES AND 60+ MPH WINDS. HOWEVER, AS IS REFLECTED IN THE 0530Z SPC
DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, THE GLD CWA HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE TRIPLE POINT WILL BE ON OUR BORDER,
THERE WILL BE LITTLE RESIDENCY TIME FOR THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY
BEFORE THEY LEAVE THE CWA. OUR BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STORMS MOVING INTO THE
MOIST AIR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, OR A LANDSPOUT FORMING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS NEW STORMS FIRE NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT. THE LANDSPOUT OPTION SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING! CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 100 KTS
AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND IS AROUND 65 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE NIGHT, LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
WE'LL HAVE TRAILING SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS LOWS GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND FREEZING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO FALL APART BY 6-9Z. 12-18Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE SOME LIKE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO AROUND
60, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SOUTHERN CWA TO HAVE RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS. SINCE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE SEEN MORE
MOISTURE THAN THE SOUTHERN CWA, RH VALUES INCREASE TO THE NORTH.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 23
KTS IN THESE DRY LOCATIONS, LEADING TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE OF HITTING RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S AS OUR NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
C/K - CELSIUS/KELVIN
P-TYPE - PRECIPITATION TYPE
MPH - MILES PER HOUR
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
KM - KILOMETER
SM - STATUTE MILE
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
GLD - GOODLAND
SPC - STORM PREDICTION CENTER
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 40%-60%
RANGE DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WITH 30% TO 50% RANGE
DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND 50%-70% RANGE OVERNIGHT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWER FORECAST IS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING MOVES GENERALLY EAST DURING THE
PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30% TO 50% RANGE DURING THE DAY
(RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS) DECREASE A BIT FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE 20% TO 30% RANGE OVERNIGHT (SNOW SHOWERS). HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
MONDAY...CONTINUED DRY UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME WINDY TO
VERY WINDY BY MID DAY TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW HOURS OF
MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AT KGLD
IN THE AFTERNOON (6-10SM), BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VISIBILITIES
IS LACKING AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
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