910
FXUS63 KGLD 011136
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER, BLOWING DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW) AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED.
TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA, AND WE EXPECT THE CENTER OF THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS MORNING, THE 850 MB LLJ HAS
BEEN TRANSPORTING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THIS
CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THE LLJ
HAS BEEN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT, BUT AS THE
DAY GOES ON AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP. WE EXPECT TO GENERALLY SEE GUSTS
TOP OUT AROUND 35-45 KTS, BUT A COUPLE 50-55 KTS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HAZARDS. THE FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE BLOWING DUST. IN THE MIDDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN, LOCATIONS NEAR DUST SOURCE REGIONS (OPEN FIELDS) MAY
(40-50%) SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO AROUND 0.5-1 SM. AS FOR
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM TO GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 C/KM, MEANING THERE IS NO CAP TO KEEP
THE DUST NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HAZY SKIES AND
WORSENED AIR QUALITY, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 MILES. BLOWING DUST WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA, WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST.
AS MENTIONED, WHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP, DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING IN AND REPLACE THE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL DROP
RH VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA, TO THE POINT WHERE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED AND EXPANDED DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROLONGED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW LOOKS TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z AND PROCEED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT RH VALUES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 FROM DROPPING TO LESS THAN 15% FOR MORE THAN
AN HOUR. THERE IS A CHANCE (~20-30%) OF SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND KS 25 AROUND I-70 DUE TO THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH COULD SPARK SOME FIRES. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS AS THEY DECAY. MORE ON THESE STORMS IN A
MINUTE.
AS THIS DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEETS THE MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT DURING THE DAY, A DRYLINE WILL FORM. THE DRYLINE'S POSITION
IS STILL SLIGHTLY IN QUESTION, BUT IT LOOKS TO SET UP ON THE
EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WHEREVER THE COLD FRONT AND THE
DRYLINE MEET (TRIPLE POINT) TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OR FORM. WITH THESE STORMS, WE CAN
REASONABLY EXPECT HAIL UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AND 60+ MPH WINDS.
HOWEVER, AS IS REFLECTED IN THE 0530Z SPC DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK, THE GLD CWA HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. WHILE THE TRIPLE POINT WILL BE ON OUR BORDER, THERE
WILL BE LITTLE RESIDENCY TIME FOR THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
THEY LEAVE THE CWA. OUR BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STORMS MOVING INTO
THE MOIST AIR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, OR A LANDSPOUT
FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS NEW STORMS
FIRE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. THE LANDSPOUT OPTION SEEMS VERY
UNLIKELY AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING! CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR LOOKS
TO BE AROUND 100 KTS AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND IS AROUND 65 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE NIGHT, LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40%
CHANCE WE'LL HAVE TRAILING SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS LOWS GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO FALL APART
BY 6-9Z. 12-18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
COULD SEE SOME LIKE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO
AROUND 60, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SOUTHERN CWA TO HAVE RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. SINCE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
SEEN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE SOUTHERN CWA, RH VALUES INCREASE TO
THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY GUST
TO AROUND 23 KTS IN THESE DRY LOCATIONS, LEADING TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS THAN A
30% CHANCE OF HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S AS OUR NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
C/K - CELSIUS/KELVIN
P-TYPE - PRECIPITATION TYPE
MPH - MILES PER HOUR
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
KM - KILOMETER
SM - STATUTE MILE
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
GLD - GOODLAND
SPC - STORM PREDICTION CENTER
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
OVERVIEW: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP, BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL-WESTERN
CONUS AND PRONOUNCED RIDGING ON THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC MARGINS
OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THURSDAY: CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION-TYPE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A COMPACT UPPER LOW PRESENTLY SITUATED
OFFSHORE THE OREGON COAST WILL DIG SSE THROUGH CALIFORNIA
(TONIGHT), BRIEFLY STALL OVER ARIZONA (WED), THEN WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY LIFT NNE-NE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (WED NIGHT) AND COLORADO
(THU).. AND THAT AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO (WED NIGHT) WILL MEANDER INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS (THU). BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA THU-THU NIGHT.. THAT SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP (~0.50" LIQUID EQUIV).. AND THAT A
SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS (CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPS ~0 TO 5C)
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP. WHILE P-TYPE WILL BE A FUNCTION OF MULTIPLE COMPETING
PROCESSES THAT WILL VARY IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, THE
CONTRIBUTIONS OF WHICH WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE, A FEW COMMON DENOMINATORS ARE
PRESENT AMONGST THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE:
[1] EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (12-18Z
THU) MAY FACILITATE AN INITIAL P-TYPE OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST CO
AND, PERHAPS, IN A FEW ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES.
[2] WHERE SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE PRESENT, STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE E AND NE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
LEE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY OVERWHELM THERMAL PROFILES AND FORCE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN.
[3] EXCEPT, PERHAPS, IN NORTHEAST CO.. ON THE N-NW PERIPHERY OF
THE LEE CYCLONE.. WHERE HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKEST (POSSIBLY NEUTRAL) AND HEAVY PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
(IF PRESENT) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET DIURNAL HEATING /
MODEST WARMING FROM ATTENUATED INSOLATION.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, ACCUMULATING WET SNOW (IF PRESENT)
WOULD LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE, I.E. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: RECENT (00Z 04/01) OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE 'BROAD
STROKES'.. INDICATING DEEP TROUGHING / CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEKEND. ACTIVE,
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY. AT THIS RANGE, FORECAST SPECIFICS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MURKY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE LARGER/BROADER SYNOPTIC
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-WESTERN CONUS.. A PATTERN IN WHICH
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SAID WAVES WILL FOSTER A WIDE
VARIETY OF OUTCOMES WITH REGARD TO CYCLONE EVOLUTION (TRACK/
INTENSITY).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KGLD IS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS THAT
SHOULD BE BREAKING AND CLEARING DURING THE FIRST 45-75 MINUTES
OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOG FROM THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING IN.
IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW DENSE THIS FOG WILL
BE, BUT THERE IS ABOUT 60% CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z AND WE WILL
RETURN TO VFR. THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT GUSTY WINDS
BRINGING IN BLOWING DUST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE'S A SLIM
(<10%) CHANCE THAT A PLUME OF DUST MOVES OVER KGLD AND PRODUCES
IFR CONDITIONS, BUT KNOW THAT IS A POSSIBILITY. PEAK GUSTS
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE 40-45 KTS RANGE. THERE'S ABOUT A
10-20% CHANCE AROUND 21-0Z SOME STORMS WILL FIRE AROUND KGLD,
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ARE AROUND 0-6Z. ALL OF THESE
CHANCES WILL BE DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SITE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN AND IMPROVE
KMCK WILL CONTINUE SEE MVFR CEILINGS, BRIEFLY IFR CEILINGS ARE
UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 16Z. AS LONG AS THE
STRATUS DECK STICKS AROUND, FOG WILL NOT IMPACT KMCK, BUT IF THE
CLOUDS SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST, EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR TO
BRIEFLY IFR FOG. KMCK WILL START SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR POP-
UP STORMS AROUND 21Z THROUGH AROUND 3Z, BUT SOME COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS LATER. BY ABOUT 6-9Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTABLY
IMPROVING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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