815
FXUS63 KGLD 191915
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
- THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW FOR LOCALES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE CENTER ROUGHLY IN ARIZONA.
ALSO SHOWN IS A STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STREAMING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING SNOW ALONG WITH
700MB CONVERGENCE. THAT BEING SAID, LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BAND WEAKENING SO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
HAS LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN. CDOT CAMERAS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES.
FOR TODAY, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE AREA AND STILL PULL SOME
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND NOT BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA YET. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES TO
START THE DAY, BUT LOCALES FURTHER EAST AND NORTH SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST, IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN DUG INTO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 50S NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CAP
IN THE 40S WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT
ALONG WITH A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TONIGHT IS LIKELY THE LAST BEST CHANCE WE'LL HAVE FOR
PRECIPITATION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, IT IS
FORECAST TO ALSO BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND BRING A
SURFACE LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DUG IN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE LOW LIKELY WON'T LIFT UNTIL IT
IS WELL PAST THE AREA IN EASTERN KANSAS. FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA,
A FEW OUTER BANDS OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE OVER,
BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AGAIN.
TOMORROW, CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
BOTH FADE DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. FOR AREAS THAT SEE CLOUD COVER CLEAR
(MOSTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83), TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
INCREASE THAT MUCH AS A WAVE FURTHER NORTH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
PUSH EAST, HELPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CLEAR WITH WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH. IN SPITE OF THE LOWERING OF THE WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE WEST AND HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING. IF THE WINDS ARE TOO
SLOW IN BECOMING WESTERLY AND DEVELOPING THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, LOCALES WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 WOULD LIKELY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE SO THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF AREAL
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME, BUT IS NOT SHOWING CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO
THE GFS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW/AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB FROM THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME ON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SURFACE TO
850MB RANGE AS TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGES WILL FOCUS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES THAT ACCOMPANY EACH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS A BIT DRIER ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
SURFACE COLD FRONTS.
LOOKING FOR DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING HOURS, HIGHEST NUMBERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, AND WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
27, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS THUNDER. CLOUD COVER
COULD HELP TO INHIBIT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER CHANCES, BUT SOME DECENT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL HAVE 50-70%
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND A 30-50% CHANCE THEREAFTER. BASED ON
THE TRACK/TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, HIGHEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25.
THE LATEST GEFS TOTAL QPF DOES FAVOR THE EASTERN CWA FOR HIGHEST
TOTALS, WITH THE 850 TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTS NOT TAPPING INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UNTIL THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
BE STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS COULD MIX INTO
THE EQUATION AS THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME APPROACHES.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 70S, WITH WARMEST
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO SHARON
SPRINGS, KANSAS. MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY,
WITH 60S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY. GOING INTO SATURDAY, WARMER WITH
MAINLY 70S AREA-WIDE ONCE AGAIN. SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST. WARMEST LOCALES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S, WARMEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. SOME LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN EASTERLY WIND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 02Z-14Z. AFTER 15Z, WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS. WILL BE WATCHING THE
09Z-16Z FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS FROM 21Z-02Z. FROM 03Z-14Z,
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTER 15Z, WINDS BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
ABOUT 12Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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